It occurs in the midst of a context marked by a search for coverage four days before the presidential election.
He futures market of Matba-Rofex deepens the fall in contracts for December and January 2024, which tends to moderate the devaluation expectation after the announcement of the swap with China. This occurs in the midst of a context marked by a search for coverage four days before the presidential election.
After the spiraling increases of recent weeks, the December contract drops to $795 (a drop of more than 11%). Meanwhile, for the January 2024 contract, $984 (-10%) is sold, double what it fell on the previous day. In turn, the largest drop is experienced by May 2024 contracts with aa reduction of 12.4% to $1,450.
According to market sources Ambitthe low answers “mainly intervention. I estimated the position sold yesterday by the BCRA at US$2,506 million and judging by the wheel, today he also seems involved.
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Market sources said that in addition some funds that had made a very strong bet on futures, those coverage levels began to dropsomething that may be linked to the restriction imposed by some FCI managers on dollar linked fund subscriptions.
Some operators believe that the currency by the end of the year was “very expensive” (taking into account a rate above 2,000%) given the possibility of disorderly dollarization or with an exchange rate higher than the current CCL dollar, which generated a lot of generalized uncertainty throughout the market.
The arbitrage with dollar linked
Last week, according to Anker Latin America, the purchase of dollar linked April 24 TV24 in devaluation -30% caused by the sale of Rofex futures allowed the creation of a peso synthetic via TV24 with a rate lock of 1075% TEA (22.4% TEM) at maturity (with exposure to the administration of the collateral required by Rofex before variations in the mark to market). This attractive rate of the peso synthetic via TV24 in relation to the fixed rate alternatives (monetary policy rate at 254.8% TEA) implies that the coverage of the official FX via sovereign linked dollar instruments April 24 was cheaper than official FX coverage via Rofex futures April 24. Therefore, in addition to the strong intervention of the Central Bank The decline may also respond to a certain “rearrangement” of prices.
Source: Ambito
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