The greatest correction is made by May long contracts and June 2024of almost 25%, just like the December 2023 contracts that correct up to a 16% moving away from the perspective of devaluation and/or dollarization.
According to Personal Investment Portfolio (PPI) this morning, in the short contracts The Government has all the incentives to maintain the frozen exchange rate. “We believe that intervention in futures will continue to reach the limits in both ROFEX and MAE – we estimate around US$1,400/US$1,600 million remaining between the two markets.”
For its part, regarding long contracts, “despite the efforts to keep the official exchange rate still in the short term, the probability of doing something with the FX after December 10th it is not zero (even under Massa’s eventual mandate). In this way, the Massa triumph effect probably hit the short contracts harder than the long ones (although the recent strong price rise also threatens a correction).
He dollar today, After the elections it is trading at $350.10, ratifying the stable exchange rate value since last August in an attempt to stop the inflationary escalation.
From the Ministry of Economy it was said that the official parity will remain unchanged until mid-November and then it will be devalued in the order of 3% monthly, against the 17.9% drop noted after the presidential primaries two months ago.
What is the market’s view after the results?
“It seems to me that (with the result) it can lead to alleviating (dollar) taking conditions” and “may bring some relief to the dollar“said analyst Salvador Vitelli.
“Many assets had begun to ‘price’ dollarization disorderly, which is why the dollar could suffer some relaxation,” he added and pointed out that “in bonds there may be greater intervention.”
The result meant that ‘Together for Change’, which incorporated the conservative Patricia Bullrich, a candidate considered ‘pro-market’ abandons the presidential race.
For its part, Sebastian Azumendi from Adcap He said that the result “must be looked at from the outside investor who was terrified of Milei and Bullrich’s hope was low.”
Investors “lThey were more afraid of a victory for Milei than of this result. Likewise, I believe that the market will open downwards and there will be a floor in which there would be some demand,” he estimated.
“The market had been discounting a runoff between Sergio Massa and Javier Milei. I think that, based on the result, there are two phenomena that could occur. One, that the uncertainty of (Javier) Milei winning in the first round or as the candidate with the most votes,” Timerman said in radio statements. In this regard, he assured that “that is positive for all local assets” as well as the fact that “Milei has not won in the first round nor is he guaranteed a victory in the second round.”
“It is good so that the dollar does not skyrocketr, for everything Milei had been saying and for his dollarization speech, in a context in which Massa does not have many resources to intervene,” he explained.
Source: Ambito
I am a 24-year-old writer and journalist who has been working in the news industry for the past two years. I write primarily about market news, so if you’re looking for insights into what’s going on in the stock market or economic indicators, you’ve come to the right place. I also dabble in writing articles on lifestyle trends and pop culture news.
