Dollar for exports: what effects does the measure have on the MEP, the CCL and the blue

And the Government ordered the extension of the conditions that applied for the soybean dollar until now to other export sectors, which is an exchange rate of $350, as well as the settlement of 70% of the dollars obtained in sales operations abroad through the MULC (Single Free Exchange Market) and the remaining 30% in the CCL.

Thus, the analyst and agribusiness expert Salvador Di Stefano points to Ámbito “It is a measure good for exporterswhich generates more reserves for the BCRA, because this differentiated dollar will generate a lot of liquidation in wheat, corn and soybeans, as well as in goods and services.”

MEP and CCL dollar: how Massa’s announcement impacts

And, on the other hand, as the Ecolatina economist explains Santiago Manoukianthe fact that 30% will increase the supply in the CCL dollar can potentially contribute to lower pressures on this price, as occurred during September with the implementation of the mechanism 25%-75% in the case of soybeans (which contemplated the same possibility in the export liquidation process but with those percentages for the CCL and the MULC, respectively).

“A calm has already been seen since Monday in expectations regarding the CCL and the MEP, which has to do with the announcement of the measure and responds to the fact that the market expects that a flow of dollars will enter through the Cash Con Liqui”, points out Mateo Reschini from Inviu. And he anticipates that, without a doubt, this greater flow can help control the prices of stock exchange rates going forward, which, without a doubt, will have its correlation, sooner or later in the blue, since they are usually arbitrated.

Likewise, there are other elements that complement these advertisements. “The measure is part of a set of actions that the Government seeks to implement as part of an exchange strategy defensive with a single purpose: to avoid a new discrete jump in the official exchange rate until the second electoral round,” details the analyst.

And it is that a lot there was speculation about the possibility of an exchange rate jump after the first round, as happened after the primaries (PASO), which it didn’t come this timeand that, in part, also dissipated with the triumph of the official candidate over the libertarian Javier Milei in this general election. That too distanced the idea that a dollarization of the economy was comingas the latter promised in the campaign and made the Government able to take some breath and implement a series of measures aimed at guaranteeing a certain exchange rate calm facing the runoff.

“This set of measures includes the sharpening of the administration of access to the official exchange market (the opposite of the growth in commercial credit), the use of reserves and new regulatory restrictions to anesthetize financial dollarsinterventions in the futures market and in the secondary market of the US currency to sustain the debt in pesos and the deepening the exchange rate splitting scheme (as seen with the dollar for exporters)“, details Manoukian.

Will the dollar have the expected effect for exporters?

The great unknown at this time is How effective will these measures be in pursuit of the objectives proposed by the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa?, with them. For the Romano Group analyst, Salvador Vitelli“this ad helps cushion drain of reserves that was expected for this month until the runoff.” Above all, taking into account that the Government has a payment ahead of it that will be made shortly to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

It is expected that, between this week and next, the Government makes the disbursement to the Fund to cancel the maturities scheduled for October, which are around US$2.6 billion in total. For this purpose, it would use funds from the new freely available tranche of the currency swap subscribed with Chinawhich is US$6.5 billion.

Without a doubt, the arrival of the exporting dollar will serve to compensate for this loss of dollars at a very fragile time for reserves and mitigate its effect on the BCRA’s balance sheet. The Government announced that it expects one to be settled US$7,000 million more thanks to the measure.

However, Vitelli warns that he doubts that this new dollar for exports will allow a strong accumulation of reserves at the BCRA. And it explains that, “the more items go towards a differential exchange rate, the more the official backwardness becomes evident” and, then, it is likely that there will be an increase in the demand for foreign currency from imports, which brings reserve stress.

Consequently, although he thinks “that allows him cushion the fall in the level of dollar accumulation and go through this stage more calmly” to the monetary regulator, I do not believe that they will be a forceful and lasting contribution.

Exporter dollar: advantages and disadvantages of the measure

In addition, Di Stefano warns that, on the other hand, the exporting dollar is inflationary to a certain extent because it harms some sectors that add value, such as the pork and poultry chain, which use many agricultural products such as basic supplies of their chains, which are now becoming more expensive.

The concrete thing is that, Without a doubt, these Massa announcements are one more element that helps the Government to move more smoothly towards November 19, when the ballot will be held, through the double effect of greater control of the CCL dollar, which It has an impact on the dynamics of the blue tooand an extra contribution to the reserves.

However, as pointed out Alejandro Giacoiaof Econviewsit must be taken into account that “the evolution of parallels It will be very tied to what happens in politics until the runoff. How do you evolve expectations? of a devaluation after that electoral instance.” This will also be decisive for the success of this program and the measures implemented.