Goldman Sachs Group is looking to the future with optimism as generative artificial intelligence positions itself as the engine of economic growth in the coming years, according to a report cited by the Bloomberg agency.
This financial giant raised its long-term growth estimates for the United States and several other key economiespredicting that generative AI will boost productivity in the next decade.
In the case of the United States, considered a leader in the adoption of AI, It is anticipated that this technology will contribute an increase of 0.1 percentage points to gross domestic product (GDP) in 2027, accelerating to an increase of 0.4 percentage points in 2034. This raises Goldman’s economic growth projections for the northern country to 2% in 2027 and 2.3% in 2034.
However, widespread adoption of AI will take time, and its full impact may not become apparent for several years, according to the Goldman team. Despite uncertainty over when and how significant this impact will be, the banking giant predicts that generative AI will positively influence productivity over time.
AI: what awaits the Euro zone and China
In the euro area, an increase of 0.1 percentage point is expected from 2028, and an increase of 0.3 percentage points in 2034, which would boost regional growth to 1.4%.
On the other hand, China would see more modest gains, with an increase of 0.2 percentage points in 2034, raising its expansion rate to 3.2%. Japan would also see a 0.3 percentage point increase in 2033, bringing its GDP growth to 0.9%, according to Goldman projections.
Goldman economists highlight that, although their base case foresees a moderate effect on global growth in the next decade, There are considerable risks around these estimates.
In economic terms, The benefits of AI are closely linked to increased efficiency, as it automates laborious and repetitive tasks, freeing up time for more productive activities. It is estimated that generative AI could automate up to 25% of work tasks in major developed economies, such as the United States, and up to 20% in emerging markets.
Nevertheless, Goldman points out that AI does not represent a large-scale paradigm shift, such as the Industrial Revolution of the 19th century or the adoption of electricity in the 20th century. These “structural breaks” are rare and lead to prolonged periods of significant increases in productivity, with only three cases having occurred since the 16th century.
Source: Ambito
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