The placements of retail fixed term accentuated the fall in October with 20.6% monthly in real terms accentuated by the presidential election. According to a report by LCG, the behavior of the Fixed deadlines continued downward, while limiting the placement time; today is just 50.8 days, the lowest level in the last 20 years.
Even with inflation on the rise, inflation-linked deposits (UVA) They did not change this trajectory due to the obligation to anchor the balances for 90 days in a scenario of inexchange rate stability. Today they represent just 0.5% of total term placements, when a year ago they were 1.6%.
“In this framework, the high nominal context would seem to be limiting the drop in deposits in sight, where the management of physical money becomes cumbersome. We do not rule out further falls, nor a redirection to money market funds which grew by 14% during October (14% real).
Let’s respect fixed-term deposits, despite the improvement in the reference rate (11% monthly), these will continue to be subject to the instability of the exchange market. Therefore we do not rule out new falls ahead of the runoff“, they maintain from the consulting firm.
Fixed term vs. inflation: what is convenient
He traditional fixed termwith the last modification of BCRA rates, began to have a monthly effective yield (TEM) of the eleven%closest to the data of September inflation (12.7%) that he 9.7% that was previously offered.
He November 13 The official number of the inflation of the month of October. For their part, most of the private consultants indicate a increase around the 10%. These are the parameters that must be analyzed to define whether the fixed term is convenient or not.
Mateo ReschiniSenior Research Analyst at Inviu, considered in dialogue with Ambit that “despite the interest rates they went up and They are much higher than at other timeshe risk of falling below inflation is still not negligible“.
He also said that, for that reason, there are instruments in bag how are the CER titleswhich are lowering rates and shorter ones, such as Letterswhat are you offering negative real rate. “This reflects that “Investors prefer to invest at a negative rate rather than in products with a regulated nominal rate (such as fixed terms).”
What he points out is mainly due to a deadline issue. And the first option has a greater possibility of quick liquidity and the second requires waiting at least 30 days. “So everything short-term is underperforming inflation and expectation,” he explained.
Money markets grow
The money market They continue to represent 55% of the fund industry. BCRA raised the fixed term rate to 133% nominal annual rate around the middle of the month and after September inflation was known. The latter, as the days went by, accelerated the accrual of these funds and allowed October to close with gains of 9.1% on average, according to a document prepared by PPI.
Source: Ambito
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