The Government’s idea is to resume the rhythm of daily microdevaluations (crawling-peg) starting this week, although it could wait a little longer. This is what Minister Sergio Massa announced.
They are barely missing six days until the runoff and begins a key week for the goverment in exchange matters Given the the Minister of Economy and presidential candidate, Sergio Massa, who yesterday starred in the debate with Javier Milei, anticipated almost a week ago his idea of resuming the rhythm of daily microdevaluations (crawling-peg) from November 15. One probability is that it will be implemented after the runoff, but whatever the case, the expectation is that it will be done timidly at first and the strategy will be consolidated later. What is his plan for the official dollar?
“What is coming is a gradual increase in the exchange ratepossibly since November 15. This provides predictability, reduces uncertainty, in an electoral scenario that contains two opposing economic policies,” economist Pablo Ferrari explains in dialogue with Ámbito.
Massa said that he plans to apply an initial adjustment of $3.50 to the exchange rate regulated by the Central Bank (BCRA), which since August 16 has been fixed at around $350, which will bring it to a price of $353.5 pesos. This would be the beginning of a path of gradual reduction of the exchange gap what do you want to put into practice if wins the elections on November 19 against Javier Milei.
Official dollar: since when has the crawling-peg returned and why
According to official sources, “this could be put into practice this month, as Massa said, although it is also likely to be postponed until after the elections or until December.”
The strategy, according to Ferari, responds to the fact that, despite pressure from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), The Government avoided increasing the exchange rate by 100%, but had to devalue almost 22% on August 14, the day after the primary elections (the PASO). “Thus, the wholesale exchange rate was positioned at $350 and that 22% was distributed in 3 months,” he adds.
However, this situation cannot last forever and Epyca Consultores economist Joel Lupieri eIt is possible that “there will soon be news in the official exchange rate, and the dollar will increase marginally.”
How will the evolution of the official exchange rate be?
Massa tests a formula for the return to crawling peg: subtract one percentage point from October inflation and divide it by 30. Thus, Assuming that the CPI was 9.5%, as private economic analysts expect, the objective for the following month will be an increase in the official dollar of around 8.5%which would imply an advance by the wholesaler of what would be equivalent to around 2.8% daily.
His plan is to leave the stocks at the end of next year as a consequence of a process that includes an increase in exports in order to add reserves to the BCRA from greater exports, along with a reduction in the fiscal deficit and the opening of new financing mechanisms for the country.
Note in progress.-
Source: Ambito
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