The future dollar accelerates falls of up to 7%, in anticipation of the beginning of the crawling peg

The future dollar accelerates falls of up to 7%, in anticipation of the beginning of the crawling peg

He future dollar accelerates falls in it Matba-Rofex this Tuesday, November 14 after confirmation that the Government will begin the crawling peg between Wednesday and after the runoff. The contracts most affected are the short-term ones in the month of December and January 2024. This happens in full countdown towards the runoff next Sunday.

In this context, the dollar for the December 2023 contract gives up $44 (6.64%) to $617.5. For January 2024, meanwhile, the decrease is $27 (3.62%). Finally, the February 2024 contract is around $820 with a decrease of $30 (-3.64%).

Contracts above May already show above $1,000, where that term gives up $42 (-4%). However, the most affected is August 2024 with a loss of $85 (-6.75%).

He REM puts numbers on this devaluation, expecting a exchange rate jump to $526.4 in December from $381.8 in November or 37.9%. On the other hand, the monthly rate implicit in the November/December forward in ROFEX futures is located at 80.3%. According to a PPI report, “someone is wrong.”

Official dollar: the Government resumes the crawling peg

They are barely missing few days until the runoff and key days beginfor the goverment in exchange matters given that the Minister of Economy and presidential candidate, Sergio Massa. Massa had anticipated his idea of ​​resuming the rhythm of daily microdevaluations (crawling-peg) from November 15.

Although there is a chance that it will be implemented after the runoff, whenever that may be, the expectation is that it will begin a path of gradual appreciation of the US currency shortly. What is your plan for the official dollar?

“What is coming is a gradual increase in the exchange ratepossibly since November 15. This provides predictability and reduces uncertainty in an electoral scenario that contains two opposing economic policies,” economist Pablo Ferrari explains in dialogue with Ámbito.

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Massa said that he plans to apply the exchange rate regulated by the Central Bank (BCRA), which since mid-August has been fixed at around $350, an initial adjustment of $3.50, which will take it to be quoted at $353.5 pesos. This would be the beginning of a path of gradual reduction of the exchange gap that he wants to put into practice if he wins the elections. Next November 19 against Javier Milei.

How will the evolution of the official exchange rate be?

“In principle, everything indicates that we would return to the system prior to August 14when the wholesale exchange rate It was adjusted daily with percentages that at the end of the month tried to keep prices updated to mitigate the transfer to prices. We will see under what conditions this is resumed, for now, they are just announcements,” he points out. Gustavo Quintana, from PR Change Operators.

Andrés Reschini, analyst at F2 Soluciones Financieraspoints out in the same sense that “it is evident that the exchange rate fixed cannot continue.” However, he warns that it is still not clear how much the pace of daily microdevaluations“. According to his calculations, the official dollar It is further behind than it was before the August devaluation and the BCRA’s reserve position is even more fragile. With these data on the table, he explains that it will have to be seen in the light of result of the ballot what is defined and the statements that the market and the economic team will make after that second round.

Source: Ambito

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