Regarding the last business day of October, the gap with the official showed a rise of 32.3 percentage points, from 79.8% to 112.1%.
In this way, the price that was regulated by the BCRA for months converged with that of the “free” CCL (operated with alternative financial assets), which on this day operated around $ 215.
For his part, the MEP dollar rebounded 1.9% this Tuesday to $ 200.72. In the month it exhibited an increase of 12%, the highest since September last year.
It should be remembered that the month was crossed by mid-term elections, which had the opposition as the winner in the main districts of the country but the ruling party improving considerably with respect to the result of the PASO.
In this context, the market expected the Government to validate a greater increase in the official exchange rate after the elections, taking into account that the currency had been lagging behind inflation and that the monetary authority did not have an abundant amount of reserves. This was reflected in an acceleration of the prices of the parallel “free” dollars.
Under this scenario, the BCRA maintained its exchange policy with respect to the official one, although it did stop operating with the AL30 because this implied a loss of reserves that was no longer even having too much effect to contain devaluation expectations.
In recent days, new developments in exchange matters were added, which generated some turbulence. On the one hand, the entity headed by Miguel Ángel Pesce decided to make the conditions of access to the official dollar more flexible for importers of capital goods.
However, it later added new restrictions by prohibiting the sale in installments of tickets and tourist services abroad and providing that as of December the banks must reduce their Net Global Position (PGN) of foreign currency to 0%, which would force the banks to part with about $ 600 million.
Faced with the false and unjustified rumors of bank runs, the BCRA assured that this last measure “has no effect” on the deposits of private savers. To give predictability, private banks came out to import bills and in the last hours asked the BCRA for some US $ 100 million to supply the supposed demand.
On the other hand, financial market players await the presentation of the multi-year economic plan, which is estimated that the Government will send to Congress on December 6. It will have detailed progress made so far in the negotiations with the IMF and the main guidelines for the potential agreement.
Official dollar
In the official segment, the The Central Bank had to part with US $ 135 million this Tuesday to satisfy demand and closed November with a net sale of US $ 890 million..
In this way, the monetary authority managed to stop the increase in the currency amid a firm hedging at the end of the month.
During the day the wholesale dollar rose just three cents to $ 100.96. In the month it increased 1.2%, just above what had been increasing in previous months but still well below the monthly inflation rate.
Despite the sales of the last two months, in the accumulated of the year the Central maintains an accumulated positive result of u $ s5,500 million.
“In December, the liquidation of the fine harvest begins, with an estimate of foreign exchange earnings of the order of US $ 3,500 million,” anticipated sources from the institution.
At the same time, they highlighted in the futures market the entity earned $ 19,000 million so far in 2021, and $ 4,500 million in November “when the devaluation jump with which the market speculated did not materialize.”
Today gross international reserves are below US $ 42 billion, while net reserves are in the area of US $ 5 billion.
The former head of the BCRA, Martín Redrado, said this Thursday in statements to Urbana Play that with this level of reserves “we do not have enough backs to face our commitments in the first quarter (of 2022), not even to cover a month of imports “.
For its part, the dollar today rose seven cents to $ 106.48 -without taxes-, according to the average of the main banks in the financial system, therefore the solidarity -with taxes- closed at $ 175.69, registering an advance of 1.2% in November.
The blue dollar rose 50 cents this Monday to $ 201.50, after two wheels without variants, according to a survey of Ambit in the Black Market of Foreign Currency. Even so, the gap with the officer remained below 100%, exactly 99.6%.
The informal registered 10 consecutive days trading at $ 200 or above that level. So far in November, the informal dollar showed a rise of $ 4 (+ 2%), after climbing $ 11.50 (+ 6.2%) in October.
Anyway, so far in 2021 the parallel accumulates an appreciation of $ 35.50 (around 20%), well below the accumulated inflation of 2021, higher than 41%.
Source From: Ambito
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