The expectation of an exchange rate adjustment for 2024 is growing. This happens after the results of the runoff election that established Javier Milei as the next president.
He dollar rises strongly this Tuesday, November 21 in the Matba-Rofex and the expectation of adjustment of the exchange rate for 2024. This happens after the results of the ballot that consecrated Javier Milei as the next president.
The currency prices of this market had spiraled prior to the general elections due to the possibility of implementing a dollarization of the economy, one of the most important proposals of Javier Milei. Then, in the week before the runoff, the future dollar marked a moderation of those expectations because the market bet that Sergio Massa could emerge victorious in the electoral contest. However, once again these expectations are on the rise as the Milei as winner.
In this context, the dollar for the December contract it rises $183 (27.44%) to $850. Meanwhile, by January 2024 the currency rises by $229 (29.85%) to $1,000. For February, it advances $245 (29.52%) at $1,075. And finally, for March contracts it scales $210 (23.60%) at $1,100.
Official dollar: the Central Bank accelerates the crawling peg
This Tuesday, on the first day of banking and financial activity after the runoff and within the framework of the presidential transition, the Central Bank (BCRA) maintains the policy of daily micro appreciations for the official dollar (crawling-peg), but marks a slight acceleration of this dynamic.
The monetary regulator ordered a rise in the dollar of $2.5 and it is trading $356.10equivalent to an increase of 0.6% this Tuesday. In this way, accumulate a monthly appreciation of 1.75% as of today since the crawling-peg was resumed on November 13.
The presidential transition: a key element
The transition for the new government has already begun and Javier Milei He began to outline what his management will be, with some definitions about his first moves in economic matters, with several names confirmed for his future cabinet.
The president-elect met with the Head of State Alberto Fernandez in the Quinta de Olivos this Tuesday. The meeting lasted two and a half hours, it took place within the framework of the beginning of the transition of government, which will culminate with the inauguration of the libertarian economist on December 10, when he takes charge of the sum of public power. The change in management thus opens a new scenario and the political map is reconfigured.
Likewise, in order to maintain the pace of reserve accumulation, the Government made official the extension of the export increase program until December 10 and set new conditions. As anticipated Ambitdecree 597/2023 increases to 50% the portion of currencies that can be settled in the Dollar segment Cashed with Settlement or “CCL”. It is estimated that the new exchange rate will be $640/650, which will depend on the variation in quotes.
Source: Ambito
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