The future dollar goes up this Wednesday, November 22 in the Matba-Rofex and the expectation of a strong adjustment of the exchange rate for the end of the year and during 2024. This happens after the results of the runoff that consecrated Javier Milei as the next president.
The currency prices of this market had spiraled in the run-up to the general elections faced with the possibility of implementing a dollarization of the economyone of the most important proposals of Javier Milei. Then, in the week before runoffhe future dollar marked a moderation of those expectations because the market bet that Sergio Massa could be victorious in the electoral contest. However, once again these expectations are on the rise as the Milei as winner.
In this context, the dollar at the end of November is the only one that falls ($1.80 to $366.20)which shows that the market does not foresee a devaluation of the exchange rate during the current administration.
By the end of December, however, The currency advances a jump of $27 (+3.4%) to $817. While for January 2024the exchange rate rises $44 (+4.8%) to $969.
For February, the dollar climbs $50(+4.9%) at $1,070, while for the March contracts scale $32 (+2.9%) to $1,130.
The most significant increase was recorded in August contractwhich soared $374 (+31.7%) to $1,569 on Tuesday, now down $14 (-0.9%) $1,555.
Official dollar: the Central Bank maintains the crawling peg
This Tuesday, on the first day of banking and financial activity after the runoff and within the framework of the presidential transition, the Central Bank (BCRA) maintained the policy of daily micro appreciations for the official dollar (crawling-peg).
Likewise, in order to maintain the pace of accumulation of reservesthe Government made official the extension of the export increase program until the December 10 and set new conditions. As anticipated Ambitdecree 597/2023 increases to 50% the portion of currencies that can be settled in the Dollar segment Cashed with Settlement or “CCL”. It is estimated that the new exchange rate will be $640/650, which will depend on the variation in quotes.
The presidential transition: a key element
The transition for the new government has already begun and Javier Milei He began to outline what his management will be, with some definitions about his first moves in economic matters, with several names confirmed for his future cabinet.
The president-elect met with the Head of State Alberto Fernandez in the Quinta de Olivos this Tuesday. The meeting lasted two and a half hours, it took place within the framework of the beginning of the transition of government, which will culminate with the inauguration of the libertarian economist on December 10, when he takes charge of the sum of public power. The change in management thus opens a new scenario and the political map is reconfigured.
Source: Ambito
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