During the brief transition, the market recalculates what will happen in December with the official dollar. Dollarization or exchange rate unification?
The electoral process ended and Javier Milei He was elected President for the next four years. Now there is a brief transition and while the teams and the first measures are defined, the market correct the numbers for what will happen to the official dollar in December.
In the run-up to the runoff, the one who gave the sign of what was expected was the futures market which operated at lower values ($600) when it assigned a high probability to Sergio Massa’s victory. On the other hand, when the scenario that seemed most likely was that of Javier Milei with a quick exchange rate unification / dollarization, The value of that contract was close to $1,000.
After the electoral process and with Milei’s victory, the market began to operate in an intermediate range. Around $770 / $790. This implies that, for now, they are assigning lower probabilities of shock dollarization or exchange rate unificationaccording to MEGAQM.
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In fact, the last contract traded in futures for December 2023, assigns a dollar value to $800. A signal that is seen by analysts when predicting that the stocks would not be done quickly, but there would be an exchange rate correction that month.
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Official dollar: what analysts expect for December
According to the analyst Salvador Di Stefano In a recent report, “the wholesale dollar “expects a strong rise from December 10 onwards, while alternative dollars will have a gap of 100%, at least until Argentina receives genuine dollars from the soybean and corn harvest starting in April 2024.”
From FyMA They assure that the exchange rate unification, according to the sayings of Javier Milei, would not be “on day 1” therefore until the previous step of the amount of pesos is resolved so that do not pressure the demand for dollars. That is, first resolve the issue of the leliqs, one of the main concerns of the president-elect.
It would seek to unify at a level close to $800 but without completely lifting the stocks. They point out that “Milei will receive an official dollar at $370 on December 10 and devalue it in December to $800. We expect a “slight” gap of 25% for a few more months, due to the gradualism in lifting the stocks. “The ideal is for the gap to be 0%.”
Lastly from Econviews They affirm that the kickoff of the Milei plan will be a jump in the exchange rate and a rise in the interest rate. “Our vision is that the will let the exchange rate float and the market will take it to a value somewhat below the parallel. Putting it into numbers, the dollar will rise some 100% in December remaining around $00. With this, the gap would fall by close to 20% to close in the first months of 2024.”
Source: Ambito
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