Fixed term: how deposits in pesos arrive in the Milei era and how the sharp decline in blue affects

The economic outlook witnessed a gradual but significant change in the dynamics of deposits Fixed deadlines from mid-September to today, showing a marked downward trend. This reduction, in real terms, is close at 26%. The progressive disarmament of placements in pesos found its highest point in the following weeks at STEP and continues to this day. But Different factors are putting a stop to the bleeding in recent times. Which are?

The first thing to mention is that the fall in fixed deadlines is mainly due to the search for cover, typical of the political and economic context that the country is going through, in which savers usually migrate to instruments that adjust by CER coefficient (inflation), official exchange rate (Dollar linked) or both (duals) due to electoral uncertainty and, recently, due to the presidential transition. Which is also becoming more acute these days, due to all the doubts generated by the resolution of the liquidity bills (LELIQ).

However, as noted, the surprise is that different factors are putting a stop to the bleeding of deposits in local currency, among which are: the collapse of alternative dollarsas well as future contracts, which expose the low probability of a dollarization of the economy as the future head of state proposed some time ago, Javier Milei, giving oxygen to the weight.

It is worth remembering that the statements of the elected president against the Argentine currency motivated an unprecedented disarmament of fixed deadlinessomething that is recovering these days and, although the progressive leak continuesis not close to the values ​​seen after the primary elections.

Fixed deadline: how the post-ballot performance is going

According to the latest data from central bank (BCRA), close to the runoff, an increase in placements in pesos was recorded, due to market expectations of a different result (Sergio Massa, winner) to which there finally was. And, as the economist analyzes well, Federico Glustein in dialogue with Ambitin the fall of the Fixed deadlinesit is essential to take nominality into account because, with an annual rate (ARR) of 133% in a context of monthly inflation of 10%, which remains almost constant or with a variation of 2%, a real decrease of at least is reflected. minus the 7%. “This reduction is evident and, in fact, when reviewing daily reports from the BCRA, an even more pronounced decrease is perceived“, says.

Glustein’s observation clearly confirms a fall that is consolidated when analyzing savings banks, where a more marked precipitation is also seen, close to 13%. If this loss is considered in real terms, a figure close to 20% is reached. What does this mean? That, in reality, there is less renewal of placements in pesos in real terms, which leads to a smaller amount of money in the system. “This makes the fall have a much more significant impact“Warns Glustein.

The analyst Salvador Vitelli, of Romano Group, who follows the dynamics of fixed terms, points out to this medium that today there is relative stability in placements in pesos, “with some fluctuationsalthough within a marginal range”.

Vitelli remembers that after Milei’s bullets against the peso; Starting with the general elections, the situation stabilized. Thus, the analyst maintains that “there does not seem to be a radical disarmament of fixed deadlines“, which hints at a relative “inflexibility“or a significant retention of funds in this type of instruments, due to restrictions or limitations of financial agents. “The pesos are maintained in fixed rate instruments, which suggests certain agitation in this sense,” warns the Head of Research at Romano Group.

Like Glustein, Vitelli believes that there is less money in the system, but clarifies that these funds “are not migrating to dollars or other alternative mechanisms.” Actually, remain inside the device, but in paid, current, savings and demand accounts. This is very important, since, although the numbers vary, “the economic content is maintained within the banking system,” he concludes.

Fixed terms: problems of both supply and demand

Uncertainty about restructuring or possible changes in LELIQs has led the banks to minimize risks and look for “more liquid” alternatives. A general movement is being observed towards assets such as repos, sureties or other instruments, in order to protect themselves, he warns Sebastian Menescaldieconomist at EcoGo in statements to this medium.

For the analyst, deposits fixed term have shown a downward trend since mid-September, a month before the general elections. According to their data, this decrease in real terms has already accumulated a drop of close to 26% and has led to the progressive dismantling of deposits in real terms.

Menescaldi Submits that “there is a problem on two fronts“On the one hand, it is not simply a question of demand, since not only do savers show disinterest in having fixed terms due to their performance, but there is also a problem with supply, since “banks do not want to have Leliqs“.

BCRA Central Bank

The BCRA regulates the traditional fixed term rate.

Ignacio Petunchi

It should be noted that, recently, banks significantly dismantled their holdings of liquidity bills, which generated a transfer of that money to other financial instruments, such as repos.

The EcoGo economist also adds that, in the event of a devaluation, “the exchange rate will exceed the interest rate currently paid for a fixed term“This is leading to a massive exit from these financial instruments and a relocation towards assets that offer greater protection.”

Thus, and in general terms, a certain stability is observed in the Fixed deadlines, and there is no abrupt liquidation of deposits. For now, The outflow of placements in pesos is slowing down. The main factors that lead to this dynamic are the decline in exchange rate quotes, the few chances of dollarization of the economy and a greater volume of circulating liquidity in local currency.