Fixed terms extend their decline, could there be a mass exit after lower rates?

One of the Government’s priorities is to improve the balance of the Central Bank (BCRA)since it considers it a preliminary step for the eventual elimination of the exchange controls in force within the framework of the so-called stocks. However, this strategy, whose main axis is to reduce the remunerated liabilities of the body in charge of Santiago Bausiliit has a flip side “inevitable”: disarmament of traditional fixed terms, since these instruments must fall to reduce the stock of Liquidity Passes and Letters (Leliqs).

According to Central data, from December 1 to 14 (latest data available) traditional fixed-term deposits fell more than 5% nominally. The available information has a delay of more than six days, so it is still No you can estimate how much they gave up after the lowering of rates decreed by the BCRA. On the other hand, in that same period, UVA fixed terms They increased by 17.5%, something reasonable given the context of very high projected inflation. So, Of the 100% of the fixed terms that are active, 98.1% are traditional and 1.9% are adjusted by UVA.

How do fixed deadlines come?

According to the financial analyst, Christian Butlerin dialogue with Ambitin the last 30 days there has been a drop of approximately “one trillion pesos in nominal terms“in traditional fixed-term placements. This, in his opinion, is because savers, seeing the profitability that this instrument offers today (9%), compared to an inflation rate that is estimated above 30% , they decide to look for other more attractive options, which could generate a movement towards the dollar.

This change in investment trends threatens the current stability of the exchange market, since the dynamics could erase the exchange gap that has been observed in recent days and nullify the devaluation of more than 100% applied by the Government, says Buteler.

Maximiliano Ramirezfrom the consulting firm Suramericana Visión and former undersecretary of Macroeconomic Programming, adds that fixed-term deposits in pesos, after the triumph of Javier Milei, They have been falling by more than 10%. The analyst slips a key axis in the Government’s strategy in the disarmament of the Liquidity Letters (leliqs) and that is strongly related to importers: the Bopreal, the instrument by which they seek to get importers to invest in local currency with the aim of absorbing pesos from the economy.

This, for the economist, will have an effect on deposits because many of the importers keep those pesos “not only in a fixed term but in the capital market” in instruments such as money market funds or with 24-hour settlement (T+1) and “That will end up having an impact on banking intermediation“Warns Ramírez.

As Ramírez explains well, the Government’s objective is to reduce paid liabilities, “the counterpart to this is that fixed terms must fall, otherwise the stock will not go down,” he maintains.

In that same line it is expressed Claudio Caprarulo, from Analytica Consultora, who adds that “the Leliqs and the Passes are the other side of the savings of companies and families.” Therefore, by wanting to reduce the Central deficit and Treasury financing by lowering the interest rate “with which he is indebted“, is transmitted to the banks having to pay less to savers for their fixed terms.

The Minister of Economy himself, Luis Caputo, explained in his television shows that he hopes that savers do not compare the interest rate with inflation, since it is real negative, but rather do so between the rate and the exchange rate, which has remained almost fixed since the devaluation only adjusting about 2% daily. Given this scenario, savers have no choice but to go there, since there are no instruments in the market that offer coverage against 30 points of inflation.

Fixed deadline: is a massive disarmament of placements coming?

Analysts agree in pointing out that the bleeding of placements in pesos will be maintained progressively at least during the first 100 days of the Libertarian Government. In that sense, Andrés Reschinian analyst at F2 Soluciones Financieras, warns that this instrument has been falling “in real terms” since August, when exchange rate and inflationary tensions and, ultimately, “the instability” that prevails in the economy today were accentuated.

For the financial analyst, the forecast of fixed term deposits traditional for the coming months is not at all encouraging, “at least in the short term“because with more negative rates, as a result of the high inflationary expectation and the recent cut in it, it will only lead to placements in pesos “keep falling“, so there is already greater interest in deposits tied to inflation.

In that same line, Caprarulo adds that disarmament will continue, but with some caveats, since “the dynamics are not going to be the same for the Fixed deadlines that make up companies to those of families” because their portfolio compositions are different and “they respond to different strategies in many cases”.

In this way, while the Government steps on the accelerator in its strategy to dry the weight square, which is worn to Fixed deadlinesthe attention of the savers and investors focuses on the tender this Wednesday in which the Treasury offers a new Discount Letter (Lede) with a rate higher than that paid by the fixed term, so it is also a window for that saver who was left out in the cold and without coverage due to price dynamics.