The S&P Merval in 2023 beat inflation and, measured in dollars, advanced 65%

After two devaluations of the official dollar, an annual inflation of 200%, an endless presidential election and a change of Government, the Argentine economy reaches December with strong objectives to meet in 2024: adjust GDP by 5.2%, and recover BCRA reserves. Despite everything, stock market returns were the main protagonists. So, The S&P Merval in 2023 beat the rise in prices (with some papers climbing 1000%) and measured in dollars it advanced 65%.

“From a local point of view, The year was characterized by notable volatility. The presidential election were a key factor throughout the year, highlighting the marked ideological gap and economic divergences between the candidates. Surprisingly, The elected president was Javier Mileiwho at the beginning of the year was projected behind the candidates presented by the Together for Change and Union for the Homeland coalition,” he said. Maximiliano Donzelli Head of Research at IOL investingonline.

The leading actions that advanced the most this year were Transener (+605%), Edenor (+582.7%), YPF (+422.3%), Supervielle Bank (+404.4%), Galicia Financial Group (+402%), Northern Gas Carrier (+396), Macro Bank (377.3%), and Aluar (+375.3%). Inside the leading panel There were two companies that registered an advance of 1,000%: Havanna and Inversora Juramento. Then they were followed in greater profitability: Sociedad Imp. y Exp. de la Patagonia (+849.4%), Molinos (+779.7%), and Carlos Casado (+721.3%).

S&P Merval: from January to December, how it performed month by month

He S&P Merval The year started very well with a rise in January 25.47% (+13.9% measured in dollars at the implicit exchange rate). In February, meanwhile, the Merval ended its bullish super rally by going down for the first time in 8 months. This happened while Announcements are awaited from the IMF regarding a possible relaxation of quarterly objectives. Thus, the main local index lost 2.4% and the decrease in US$ was 2.1%.

In Marchthe international arena was marked by the crisis in the banking sector after the bankruptcy of the Silicon Valley Bank in the United States. In that context, the S&P Merval lost -0.7% during that month, but measured in dollars it plummeted -10.5%. In April, it rebounded 21.3% in pesos (compared to the 18.7% jump in the blue dollar). In addition, the leading panel measured in dollars (CCL) gained 8.8% and reached 657 points.

In May the upward trend continued. The Merval recorded a positive variation of 14% and measured in CCL it rose 6.1%. In the sixth month of the year The magnifying glass was focused on the definitions of the presidential candidates. The S&P Merval rose almost 25% and the shares of the leading panel soared to almost 70%with Edenor and the financial papers at the helm.

July was month framed by the electoral rallyand a new review with the International Monetary Fund of the extended facilities agreement. So, the S&P Merval rose 7.5% and measured in dollars it fell 0.2% to $830.79. For its part, August was starred by the primary electionsand the devaluation of the official exchange rate. The S&P Merval climbed 43%, to reach the level of 653,602.88 units.

In Septemberthe local market had its worst month since the pandemic as stocks and bonds sank up to 31%. The selective measured in pesos collapsed 13.5% (measured in US$ -18.3%). Electoral uncertainty, profit-taking after extraordinary returns, and the adverse international context They made a dent in Argentine assets.

In October, for its part, The S&P Merval and Argentine stocks have moved in roller coaster mode in recent weeks. Until the presidential elections of the 22nd, he flew 41.3% in pesos, but in a few days he erased almost all that increase with a stroke of his pen and It accumulated only a 3% advance in the month. For this reason, some papers, such as Aluar or Ternium, recorded exponential increases in a very short time (up to 93% until October 17).

In November, Argentine stocks advanced up to almost 100%, in a month marked by the electoral victory of Javier Milei in the presidential runoff, something that generated positive economic expectations among foreign and local investors. At the same time, The S&P Merval closed the month with a rise of 40% in pesos and 44.7% in dollars (CCL). The last month of the year, for its part, registered an advance of 12.9% (measured in US$ -2.1%).

He equity after Javier Milei’s victory in the second round

According to an IEB report, since Milei’s victory in the runoff, the S&P Merval in dollars had a return of almost 35% which included touching US$1,000. “It is clearly showing that Investors continue to bet on an Argentina in which the foundations for sustained growth begin to emerge.“, they said from the same report.

And they expanded: “As we had been maintaining after the rally that occurred in the first rounds, we believe that investors paid to see. They bought expectations waiting for them to begin to materialize.. In this sense, we believe that The measures that the current administration has been taking are complying with the demand imposed by investors“.