The CER bondsinstruments that offer returns tied to the inflationthey positioned themselves as the star of 2023 when registering annual increases of up to 477%. Meanwhile, the price of the dollar bonds They also ended the year with accumulated upwards of up to 60%.
This occurred within the framework of a inflationary process that tended to accelerate throughout the yearresulting until the month of November, a accumulated annual variation of 148.2%. Regarding the last measurement of the year, different private consultants They estimate that it could indicate an increase in 25% and even from 30%.
In dialogue with Ambit, Juan Pedro MazzaSenior Fixed Income Strategist at Cohen S.A.indicated that “2023 closes as a great year for Argentine sovereign bondsalthough with a lot of volatility in the interim”.
“The bonds went through a year very marked by political and economic decisionsand then for the electoral trade“he explained Salvador Vitellifinancial analyst at Romano Group, to Ambit. He also highlighted the importance of the current president’s statements regarding the fulfillment of commitments and he assured that this made the rally that took place in November possible.
Bonds in pesos: fury over CERs and big increases in dollars linked
In that framework, the price of the CER bonds -adjusted for inflation- climbed up to 450.5% annuallyheaded by CUAP. Between those that rose the most in the year They followed him PAP0 (+408%)he PARP (+383.2%) and the TX28 (+373%).
Senior Fixed Income Strategist Cohen I affirm that “the big stars of the year were the bonds in pesos, which capitalized on the sharp drop in the gap at the end of the year. Our CER bond index offered a return of 71%”.
Meanwhile, the bonds dollar linked they also marked significant annual increases. He TV24 climbed a 402.9% in its quote, while the T2V4 did it in a 238.1%.
Bonds in dollars and country risk: how they operated in 2023
On the other hand, the dollar bonds They ended the year with annual increases of up to 59.7%as was the case of Bonar 2030. The ones that followed him in terms of increases were the Global 2029 (+55.4%) and the Bonar 2029 (+43.3%).
In that framework, country risk ended the year with a 13.9% drop. In this way, the year closed in the 1,906 pointsas measured by JP Morgan.
In dialogue with Ámbito, Alejandro Bianchifounder of AsesorDeInversiones, indicated that since the beginning of Javier Milei’s government and the devaluation he implemented, “the end of reserve drain of the central bankthe political decision to pay the bonds, “IRRs begin to reduce from stratospheric levels”.
“The hard-dollar offered an extraordinary return of 45% in dollars, almost ten times the annualized return offered by American Treasury bonds“he added Mazza.
Source: Ambito
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