2023 closed with strong profits for the cryptocurrenciesthus Bitcoin rose 160% and is expected to continue its bullish path in 2024. In his 15th birthday, Ambit spoke with experts who anticipated what will be the relevant events that will impact its price this year: the halving, the Bitcoin spot ETFs, and also at the macroeconomic level the end of the Fed’s contractionary policy.
Predictions about the Bitcoin halving in 2024
In chat with AmbitChief Research Officer at Crossing Capital, Iñaki Apezteguia recalled that “not only does Bitcoin turn 15 this year, but it also coincides with the fourth halving. “There’s just over 100 days left and it would be in April.”
It is worth remembering Halving is a mechanism by which the amount of bitcoins received by miners is reduced by half. as a reward for their work and which is planned to be carried out between April and May 2024. Bitcoin halvings take place every 210,000 blocks (approximately every four years), and will occur until the network has generated a maximum supply of 21 million bitcoins.
Regarding what the price dynamics are like in years where this phenomenon occurs, the analyst explained that It usually happens that the asset reaches its previous maximum again, in this case the US$69,800 it achieved in November 2021 and he didn’t repeat it again.
“The expectation is that I achieved it at a minimum this year in the second half and second semester; however, that price can be conditioned by a couple of things,” he added and explained that BTC before the halving usually does a price correction on average of 30% with respect to the maximum price of the previous year.
“As the maximum price is in the area of US$45,000, If history repeats, it could return to the US$32,000 area, which was very strong support during 2023.“, hill.
Also in conversation with this medium, the analyst Carlos Paul said: “In addition to the halving, What we can highlight is that BTC is becoming more and more usable and is being adopted more massively., as happened with El Salvador (where it is legal tender). Here in Argentina Javier Milei wants to carry out money laundering, which is also including undeclared cryptocurrencies. Thus, in a certain way what Satoshi wanted at the time is being fulfilled, which is for it to become a payment alternative in addition to hoarding.”
“The price from one year to the next has grown more than 100% He is reaching values that he feels very comfortable with. I mean, It is expected to be between US$40,000 and US$50,000.. This is not a forecast or a recommendation but the projections place it at those values when it is time for the halving,” he added. And he highlighted on the network that some intrinsic problems still remain to be solved. “It gets very congested and that makes it difficult to use”he explained and said that this generates that Payments for block verification are expensive.
For its part, Mauricio Novellico-founder of N&W Professional Tradershighlighted: “This is going to be a key year for Bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrencies since There are two fundamental events that will determine what will happen to the priceand if a bull market is consolidated, that is, a bullish mark or If we go back to look for the US$20,000 which are the halving and approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF.”
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Bitcoin spot ETF: how it impacts the market if approved
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) met this Wednesday with the trading exchanges to talk about bitcoin spot ETFs. It should be noted that January 10 is the deadline for the SEC to issue a verdict on asset manager Ark Invest’s spot bitcoin ETF. With this resolution it will be possible to know what position the SEC will take regarding the other BTC spot ETFs.
“Bitcoin price behavior is usually affected by this news. Today it dropped US$3,000 in a few hours due to pessimistic news regarding the possible approval or not of Bitcoin spot ETFs. It was said that they could reject one of the requests. Generally what happens is that they do not finish approving them because they are asked more technical details, more requirements“Apezteguia explained.
Before him why is this decision so importantdetailed: “These types of events are also being an important catalyst in the behavior of Bitcoin because if these ETFs are approved, they are exchange-traded funds. It allows the entry of strong institutional capital from large managers and we are talking about a capital flow that exceeds the entire market cap of the crypto world several times.so there is a lot of expectation that this can greatly affect the price of Bitcoin.”
For Novelliif approved it would be very positive news for the market because “it will allow very large funds to enter, that is from Wall Street invest directly and openly in Bitcoinwhich is generating a terrible expectation because it is presumed that it will be approved, which would cause the price continues to explode upwards, as it has been doing since last year”.
The analyst highlighted that this was evidenced with whales accumulating more and more BTC. “We saw that the price was going to consolidate in very positive territory in 2023 yeWe hope that this 2024 will be on the same upward path. So you have to be very attentive to those two things, mainly the halving and the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs.”
Bitcoin: the possible reduction of Fed rates and regulations
Another key could be found in how it will continue the Fed’s monetary policy since its decisions have a direct impact on the price of risk assets, such as cryptocurrencies. The Federal Reserve’s decision to pausing and even lowering interest rates next year is a positive sign for investors in cryptocurrencies. We will have to follow the evolution of inflation in the United States and industrial activity to analyze whether the objectives are met.
Finally, regarding regulations, Carlos Paul said: “The reality is that one asks a little regulation on cryptocurrencies. It becomes very difficult. A wish for 2024 is that there is a bit of a legal framework so that transactions or payments can be made directly with BTC as legal tender.. Last year it was not possible to debate the cryptoasset law and I hope that this year it can be done at the Argentine level. And another thing is that “We talk about cryptocurrencies without being associated with drug trafficking because it is not good for the ecosystem and there are scams going around.”
Source: Ambito
I am a 24-year-old writer and journalist who has been working in the news industry for the past two years. I write primarily about market news, so if you’re looking for insights into what’s going on in the stock market or economic indicators, you’ve come to the right place. I also dabble in writing articles on lifestyle trends and pop culture news.
