Did “Mervaleta” die? The market attentive to whether the end of the stock rally has arrived

Did “Mervaleta” die?  The market attentive to whether the end of the stock rally has arrived

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He had been warning in the comments to the last rounds in the market about the risk that it meant for investors to be operating in a market whose bullish engine was more a question of liquidity (the lack of reasonable investment alternatives) than one of expectations based on realities. business and economic.

This is how he wrote just yesterday: “If this means anything, it is that the rally that the national lists go through – which can continue for a long or short time, I don’t know – has an extremely “fragile” nature and can “break” at a moment’s notice. moment to moment, not allowing even the most “alive” (those who buy shares knowing that they are “expensive”, but confident of being able to “plug them into the “stupid” ones at a higher price and before everything explodes) “they can disarm their positions without suffering serious damage.”

Ending: “So, dear reader, please be very careful.” Being the general situation of the country and our market the same yesterday, today, or a day ago, the reality is that the stock market rally that we have been going through since mid-November may well continue, or in one of those, Yesterday marked its end. I do not know.

Yesterday the S&PMerval ended the day losing 4.01% to 1,060,581.14 points, which in itself does not seem like much (since the first election round on October 23, in 10 wheels the Merval fell more than now), but If we convert this to dollars, we are talking about a fall of 10.01% thanks to the 6.67% that “flew” the bill, closing at a nominal record of $1,120. It is then in hard currency where things begin to get a little murky, since it is the largest drop since election day, the eighth since Alberto Fernández took office in 2019 and the eleventh largest since Mauricio Macri took office in 2015.

Strictly this does not suggest anything extraordinary, but it still does not mean that we should not pay attention to it. Since the election of Héctor Cámpora in 1973, only two presidents have experienced similar or greater losses in the first 30 days of his administration: Raúl Alfonsín (with two) and Carlos Menem in his first presidency (with one). In any case, it is clear that the enthusiasm with which the year began was found this week – for whatever reason – and we have many to claim. Yesterday’s trading in shares was reduced to $19,195 million, 13% below the daily figure for the month to date, distributed among 27 companies that ended up and 36 that ended down.

Source: Ambito

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