The Actions from the Buenos Aires stock market were quoted up and with increases of up to more than 10% on the first business day of the Javier Milei era. And the weather remained in that vein throughout almost all of December, with the S&P Merval exceeding 1,000 points measured in CCL dollars, on December 22.
Stocks: which ones come with the best performance
“In the first month of Milei, Argentine stocks had a great performance. Especially those linked to energy, given that an increase in the price they receive at the local level is expected (due to tariff increases). Also sovereign bonds, very much in focus since the electoral process started, had increases of up to 25%,” he describes in dialogue with Ambit the analyst Epyca Consultants Joel Lupieri.
For its part, the trader and market analyst Leonardo Svirsky He points out that the dynamics of Mirgor and the gas companies were very good. “Metrogas rose 250% since November 2023 to this day,” he mentions as an example.
Juan José Vázquez, Head of Research at Cohen Aliados Financieros, points out that “in the first days of 2024, the Merval ended up rising almost 15%.” Likewise, it stands out that the stock that had the best performance was that of Mirgor, which rebounded very strongly: it rose 54%.
“It is a specific case because she was very punished and rebounded: It was once worth US$170 million and now it is worth US$240 million. This action was severely punished by the perception of the risks of the production regime in Tierra del Fuego, the debt with suppliers and future demand,” he details.
Thus Vázquez explains that Mirgor recovered its price very strongly, driven by improvements in the outlook for its entire business portfolio, as well as a principle of agreement on its debt with suppliers, which is US$400 million abroad.
On the other hand, the dynamics of Central Puerto, which rose 22.4% so far in 2024. “This is because it has very interesting assets. There is forestry activity, it has resolved the debt it had with JP Morgan and that conditioned it to pay dividends. In fact, it was unblocked and it is paying very well,” says Vázquez. And he believes it has interesting prospects.
What to invest in after the agreement with the IMF
Thus, after this review of what happened to the market in the first month of Milei’s Government and at the beginning of this year, the analysts set their focuses of interest and recommendations for what is to come, taking into account the agreement with the IMF as a key element that can mark the dynamics of investments going forward.
“Energy companies, above all, present an interesting scenario with the issue of the honesty that we are going to have regarding rates. In fact, they have been experiencing significant increases since Milei took office and present good prospects going forward,” says Svirsky.
From the Research & Trading Team of Adcap Grupo Financiero, coincide, in part, with this view. “We like energy companies (YPF and Pampa Energía, for example) and exporters like Aluar and Tenaris,” they point out.
They believe that these companies and their shares can benefit going forward from the new policies adopted by the Milei government. Among other points, they highlight that a key element will be the fact that “many companies, if they stop stepping on the rates, could benefit.”
Source: Ambito
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