Inflation: which instruments should be invested in so as not to lose against prices

The data of December inflation It marked 25.5% and since then, many savers have been wondering what to invest in when it comes to protecting their savings. In this note, all options}

This last data reflected a considerable acceleration compared to the figure reported the previous month, which was around 12.8%.

According to the latest Market Expectations Survey (REM) released by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA), the main consulting firms predict that the price increase will be 226.7% for the next 12 months.

Investments: what aspects must be taken into account

According to a report by IOL Invest Online, after the December devaluation, the dollar became a nominal anchor with a crawling peg of 2% monthly. Interest rates were kept around 8% to reduce the purchasing power of the local currency. However, the loss of competitiveness in the face of high inflation raises questions about the sustainability of this policy. There is concern about the possibility that the monetary authority will accelerate the daily devaluation or perform a discreet jump, putting stabilization at risk. If the real exchange rate remains at these levels, the competitiveness gained by the devaluation could be lost in two months.

Investments: what analysts recommend to avoid losing against inflation

Faced with this complex panorama, where having pesos without investing generates losses in purchasing power of great magnitude, IOL Investonline Research considers that positioning itself in CER and Dollar assets linked represent the best option for safeguard value against inflation considering low risk fixed income assets.

– Short term (CER TX24 Bonus): First of all, thinking about the short term, we suggest investing in TX24 that adjusts its capital by the CER, thus managing to keep up with inflation. Given that in the universe of pesos there are no alternatives to hedge against expected inflation in the future (the market discounts double-digit levels for the month of January as well).

– Medium term (Dollar Linked T2V4 Bond): T2V4 national bond linked to the US dollar, managing to create coverage against devaluation. This bond maturing on April 30, 2024, operates with good volume and to date has a devaluation yield of -13%.

On the other hand, from fintech Cocos Capital They also suggest the following portfolio of Negotiable Obligations (ON) that pays interest in dollars almost every month and together they reach an average annual interest of 7% of income measured in hard currency.

• Pampa energy 25: Pay interest in March, May, September.
• YPF 26: pays in February, May, June, August, November and December.
• Telecom 25 and 26: pays in January, February, July and August.

Regarding equities, trader Leonardo Svirsky and Adcap Grupo Financiero propose the following alternatives:

“The energy companiesAbove all, they present an interesting scenario with the issue of the honesty that we are going to have regarding rates. In fact, they have been experiencing significant increases since Milei took office and present good prospects going forward,” says Svirsky.

From the Research & Trading Team of Adcap Grupo Financiero, coincide, in part, with this view. “We like energy companies (YPF and Pampa Energía, for example) and exporters like Aluar and Tenaris,” they point out.

They believe that these companies and their shares can benefit going forward from the new policies adopted by the Milei government. Among other points, they highlight that a key element will be the fact that “many companies, if they stop stepping on the rates, could benefit.”