This is combined with the fact that the fixed-term performance remains in negative territory with the objective of liquefying the liabilities of the Central Bank (BCRA). The reduction of the monetary policy rate from 133% to 110% (annual nominal rate, TNA) also catapulted an increase in demand for other instruments in pesos, according to market sources.
As mentioned, there is greater interest in other instruments, such as ONs. This increase is attributed to the search for counteract weight loss and cut the negative spread with the fixed term rates. This move reflects investors’ strategy to address current economic challenges and adopt more short-term approaches.
ONs: what instruments the market follows
And, as he explains well financial analyst Gastón Lentini to Ambit, Negotiable obligations continue to be a safe haven asset for savers within the local market. Especially those that are issued in dollars. While for the investor with a more conservative profile, there are those of international law.
Now, the first reservation that Lentini makes about this instrument is that, at this moment, most negotiable obligations in the market Argy”“they are expensive”. Economists often express this by pointing to a compression of rates, which implies lower returns, especially in companies that once offered double-digit figures and now hover around 6% and 7%.
“Just two or three months ago, These same bonds generated returns of between 10% and 12%which leads us to the need to be cautious,” he recommends.
For example, companies like Clisa, strongly linked to public works, currently yield almost a 80% annually in hard currency, Lentini indicates. However, this high performance comes with significant risks, especially given the context of a government that “will not favor public works.”
“The company is already looking to pay its next interest coupon with more notes instead of cash,” he adds.
In contrast, Gemsa, which two months ago offered returns of 16-18%, today is closer to 10%. YPF, for its part, recently issued a new negotiable obligation aimed at institutional investments with a rate of 9.5%when three months ago they were close to 14%.
“The decline in yields is what we face today and, therefore, my suggestion is often to wait and explore alternatives,” recommends Lentini, explaining that his position is that “although corporate bonds can serve as a hedge for local investors , it is crucial to exercise extreme caution, as the risk lies in paying a high price in a context of diminishing returns.”
In that same sense, the Research area of Andean Investments (IA) in statements to this medium: “In general terms, we see them as very expensive.” Indicate that This week’s search for cover drove prices to high levels. Almost impossible to achieve returns above 9% annually, only YMCID, MRCAD and CAC2D (the latter is very short, and has very little liquidity)”, he adds.
Performance in dollars of the ONs proposed
For IA, the big problem is “where we put the dollars”, since, today, there are no other instruments with this risk profile to replace ONs.”Today, to have a fixed income portfolio that has an IRR above 10-12%, you have to combine it with some sovereign and provincial bonds.“, they pointed out from the City broker.
Maximiliano DonzelliHead of Research at IOL Invertironline, slips that the YPF ON due 2026 (YMCHO), which is Foreign Law (LE), you can operate with low amounts. “This ON is guaranteed by the company’s exports, pay coupons quarterly at an annual rate of 9% in dollars,” says the analyst.
And this instrument pays capital amortizations quarterly until the maturity date, which according to Donzelli explains, “reduces the risk of the instrument, and improves the flow to the investor, since it does not accumulate the total payment at maturity“.
Donzelli highlights the “good financial results” of YPF together with the debt restructuring carried out in recent years.
“Expensive” instruments: the experts’ recommendation
Donzelli also proposes the ON of GMSA 2027 (MRCAO) as another option, in line with lentini. It is a negotiable obligation that offers returns and a more attractive payment flow. The ON in question pays coupons semiannually at an annual rate of 9.63% and amortizes the capital every six months until maturity, which substantially reduces the risk. So, Along with this interesting structure, the bond offers an annual return in dollars of 12.2% to date..
Pablo Reppeto, Head of Research at Aurum Valores, He also comments, in line with the other analysts, that the local private debt in dollars is operating with returns”quite tight” for a few months now. The ones with the best risk/return profile from that broker are the ON of YPF to 2025, 2026, 2029 and 2033.
Likewise, Reppeto adds that the local energy sector continues to be one of the ones with the best prospects, “so we consider that you are ON provide a good level of coverage“. Others from the same sector (Pampa, CGC, for example) “they already offer very low returns, so it would be more appropriate to think about YPF’s,” concludes the expert.
In conclusion, in the current economic context there are significant challenges marked by high inflation rates, a recent devaluation and uncertainty about the sustainability of the current strategy. The main concern of investors is the possibility of a discrete jump in the exchange rate and its impact on economic stability. For this reason, the search for coverage requires that investors carefully consider the opportunities and risks associated with ONs, while it is recommended to explore other alternatives.
Prudence and constant evaluation of market conditions They are presented as key elements in decision making.
Source: Ambito
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