Anxious investors: everyone is placing their bets on when the rate cut begins

Anxious investors: everyone is placing their bets on when the rate cut begins

The crude oil prices operate with little changeas geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and disruptions to oil production in the United States overshadowed concerns about sluggish Chinese demand.

He dollar was headed for its second consecutive weekly rise, favored by the strength of the US economy and caution about when the Federal Reserve will begin to lower rates. The rethinking of rate cut bets left gold on track for its worst week in six.

He MSCI world equity index gains 0.3%, as the rally in semiconductor manufacturers, sparked by strong growth forecasts from Taiwan’s TSMC, helped Wall Street’s S&P 500 index close on Thursday near a record high. However, the measure has fallen 1.4% this month, after soaring by nearly 20% in 2023.

Market expectation on rates

The Markets see 57% chance of rate cut in Marchdown from 75% a week ago.

Mike Hewson, chief market strategist at CMC Markets, said: It is illusory that markets expect the Fed to start cutting rates in Marchunless there is a massive escalation of the conflict in the Middle East or another major economic event.

“The economic arguments in favor of rate cuts have not changed, I just think they will come in the second quarter, perhaps the European Central Bank a little earlier,” he said. “We remain in a fluctuation band that, in my opinion, will remain, although in a rather unstable manner, until the calendar for the first rate cut is clarified.”

The index pan-European STOXX 600 rises 0.3%, although it continues to lose 1.8% in the month. US stock index futures were trading higher.

The Asian stocks recover, driven by the rebound in chip manufacturers, while the yen closed the week with heavy losses. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares excluding Japan advanced 1.17%, but is down 2.7% for the week, and the Nikkei rose 1.4%, remaining close to the high of 34 years reached on Wednesday.

The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rises 2 basis points, to 4.1456%, 21 basis points more in the week, while that of two-year notes traded at 4.3527%, with a weekly increase accumulated of about 20 basis points.

Source: Ambito

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