The Argentine Certificates of Deposit (Cedears) they toasted extraordinary profits in 2023 and are positioned to continue this year being an instrument widely chosen by local investors. The fact is that, among the advantages of investing in them, is that they allow dollarize savings and cover local risk although we also have to take into account some disadvantages. As the majority are mirror actions of companies on Wall Street, we will have to see how much it will or will not impact the growth prospects of the North American economy for 2024.
For it Ambit talked with Nahuel GuevaraPortfolio Management Analyst Inviuwho expressed: “In a year where the market consensus is that The US economy is going to reach a soft landing stage (this meansr a drop in economic activity without entering a recession and a drop in inflation to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%) we believe that “United States stocks even in that case will have room to continue growing.”
In this regard, the expert recommended that the classic S&P 500 index (in Argentina you can invest through an ETF that has the sticker SPY), also there will be attractiveness in another index, in this case, the industrial Dow Jones (in the local stock market it is found as DAY). And he explained that It is because the S&P 500 has a lot of concentration with the “magnificent seven”. “We also see some appeal in the small cup but for a horizon of several years,” he added.
Low inflation in the United States could lead to a drop in interest rates and, furthermore, a dollar weakness. “If this scenario happens, more aggressive money flows seeking higher incomes would arrive in other countries outside the United States. Precisely that destination usually goes towards emerging markets, so we believe that Brazilian actions through the EWZ can also be a good alternative.”Guevara expanded.
Cedears: What to invest in for a more conservative position?
As analysts warn that there are still possibilities of a resurgence of inflation in the United States, this could cause the Fed to maintain interest rates at current levels, which would generate a probable drop in economic activity. Given this, since Inviubelieve that it is important to leave space in the portfolio for more defensive positionsin this case, they recommended mining companies such as Barrick Gold or companies in the health sector such as Johnson & Johnson or Pfizer.
Cedears: Will the magnificent seven go up in 2024?
In the first months of 2024, from Balanz they assured that Stocks related to the Artificial Intelligence industry are capturing the attention of Wall Street and they will continue with a great projection for this year. “To invest in these industries we have our Artificial Intelligence I and II packs that we developed by selecting leading companies in this sector,” they expressed.
“One of the sectors that has gained a lot of ground due to the growth of Artificial Intelligence is that of semiconductors, where companies like Nvidia, Qualcomm, AMD and Intel They are showing significant potential. “You can invest in each specific paper or else through the Semiconductor Pack that we develop with these companies,” they described Ámbito and mentioned that they believe that the software sector continues to be attractive, with leading companies such as Microsoft, Google and IBM.
How to build a winning portfolio that diversifies
From PPI They thought of two different portfolios according to a profile more conservative either more aggressive. For the first, they explained that “we continue to bet on our portfolio high dividendssustaining our exposure to leading companies in their respective industries, from low beta and that they have solid financial and credit fundamentals, while paying juicy dividends“.
The companies that make up the conservative portfolio are: Exxon, Chevron, Barrick Gold, Bank of America, Coca Cola, Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, Verizon Communications and Dow.
Finally, for the portfolio with aggressive profile explained: “Last month, our strong exposure to technology with QQQ to capture the typical Christmas rally achieved its result. The Nasdaq jumped 5.8% driven by the drop in interest rates, outperforming the S&P which rose 4.4%. By 2024, we expect a slowdown in the level of global activity, a retraction in interest rates and continued weakness of the dollar“.
“If it materializes, they analyzed, we could see an improvement in emerging markets. This, they specified, added to the high valuations at which the S&P starts operating, inclines us to add EWZ, cutting position in the QQQ and the “S&P 500”they closed from PPI.
Source: Ambito

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