The fixed term, much relegated, lost the fight in January. The blue dollar, however, put up a fight but remained below inflation. What can we expect in February?
Fixed term, blue dollar or inflation: which won the race in January and what is expected for February 2024
During January, the second month of Javier Milei’s Government, The blue dollar ran a little below the inflation projected for the first 31 days of the year, and well above the traditional fixed term rate that, at this time, It is paying a negative rate (it is located at 110% of TNA). In this situation, Ambit In this note, we will review what happened in January and what savers can expect for February.
In this month, The blue dollar advanced almost 19%, which implies a rise of $190. January started at $1,005 and ends at $1,215. The 24th hit a new nominal historical high at the close of $1,255. Regarding inflation, The CPI for December stood at 25.5% product of the devaluation of the official dollar and the deregulation of some prices in the economy. Following this data, analysts predict that by January inflation is at 20%.
February: which wins the fight between blue dollar, inflation or fixed term?
In a talk with this medium, the economist Gustavo BerI think that “in the current political and economic context, financial and free dollars could once again be close to inflation”. “They would just slide below the CPI in a climate of better expectations and more attractive alternatives for placements in pesos, currently under the ‘liquefaction’ process”he expressed.
On this last point, he mentioned the monetary policy being carried out by the Central Bank (BCRA). It is worth mentioning that on December 19, the monetary authority decided to lower the interest rate for deposits in pesos, from 133% to 110% annuallydespite a worsening of inflation. This adjustment applies to fixed terms in pesos, less than $30 million.
As far as inflation is concerned, the last Survey of Market Expectations (REM) which publishes the Central Bank (BCRA) forecast a price increase of 18.2% for February. On the other hand, some private consulting companies assured that, based on their latest measurements carried out in January, they expect that The figure is close to 15% in the second month of the year.
Precisely because of these “negative rates” for savers is that Andrés Reschini from F2 Financial Solutions he said: “If we continue with negative rates, it is expected that at least the parallel dollar will follow a path similar to inflation.”
Contrary to these analyses, for the consulting firm’s economist Epyca, Joel Lupieri, the pace of parallel depreciation is unlikely to keep pace with inflation.
“With the latest BOPREAL tenderspart of The pressure on stock exchange rates eased. Besides The Government has been effective in drying up part of the squaremaking illiquidity an important factor when considering exchanging pesos for dollars,” he explained.
Source: Ambito
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