The Government seeks to approve the omnibus law to consolidate its economic agenda. In this context, analysts reveal which bonds have the greatest potential.
Bonds in dollars and pesos: which ones the market recommends to include in portfolios during February
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In the midst of the debate about omnibus lawa key test for the Government, Ambit consulted market analysts about what the bonds, both in pesos and dollars, with greater upside potential, in the current economic and political context.
It should be noted that Specialists project high inflation for January, but a little less than expected a few weeks ago, even under a financial scenario of negative real rates. Added to this is the expectation of a possible devaluation or, at least, the acceleration of the crawling peg while, in the background, there are doubts about when a stabilization of the macroeconomy will happen.
Bonds in pesos: CER debt or dollar linked, what strategy to take?
“January continued to show that one of the government’s objectives in this initial stage is to reduce stocks in pesos. Real rates are very negative, and strict exchange controls lead investors in local currency to have to opt for the strategy that least erodes the real value of your capital“he explained SBS Group.
For this same broker, The preference for dollar-linked bonds versus CERs paid off: “Today, we maintain the preference, for various reasons: The rates continue to be more favorable for the former than for the latter. The CER carry, despite being clearly superior to the official crawling peg, could be less than expected in the short term, after high frequency estimates for January showed that, in the absence of significant adjustments in relative prices, inflation could even have been lower than in December; The strong appreciation of the real exchange rate invites us not to rule out another devaluation for March-April“.
In turn, from IOL investonline They stated that they see attractiveness in taking a position in the linked TV24 dollar bond, since it is “an instrument that adjusts for the variation of the official dollar, managing to create coverage against a devaluation.” This bond matures on April 30, 2024, operates with good volume and to date has a devaluation yield of -13%.
Dollar bonds: which ones have the greatest upside potential?
For SBS Groupwith respect to the speed of economic normalization, there would be “value in the short term”In this case, they mentioned Global 2029 and 2030although they highlighted that for these investors the high convexity (when the asset has few variations in performance, but can register important adjustments in prices) of the Global 2035, It can also lead them to position themselves on that bond. Meanwhile, the more defensive can bet on Global 2041 that, according to their projections, “it is the one that offers the best downside protection, in addition to the best legal conditions and coupon”.
For its part, since IOL investonline, They suggested adding the bond to the fixed income portfolio Global 2035. From the Research team, they selected this bonus in dollars because It currently has a return of 21% annually and, furthermore, because they considered that “it presents positive prospects with the possibility of a normalization of the economy.”
Lastly, since PPIalso agreed with the views of other brokers: “As for the bond marketwe see a good perspective for 2024 at Global 2035. This is because if we extrapolate the bonds to better credit ratings, in scenarios of normalization of the curve and lower implicit risk, the GD35would obtain the greatest upside for 2024.”
Source: Ambito
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