Blue dollar, MEP and fixed term lose against inflation: the market does not find coverage

So far in 2024, any dollar used as a reference and the interest rate fixed term traditional they lost in their race against inflation. This is confirmed by economists consulted by this medium, while the market does not find instruments that beat inflation.

After the inauguration of the president Javier Milei and the acceleration of price increases imposed the need to choose instruments that allow – at a minimum – the greatest possible coverage. Everything would indicate that those who bet on the dollar did not choose the best option, although the market range is limited.

This is how it details Ignacio Morales, financial analyst at Wise Capital, when he maintains that, “during December and January, the MEP dollar had a return of 36.89% and the blue, 32.04%, but both lost against inflation.” It happens that the CPI data for December “was 25.5% and that for January will be between 18% and 25%.”

If we take the 22% inflation forecast by the Market Expectations Survey (REM), published by the Central Bank (BCRA) a few days ago, Morales calculates that, in January, “the real return (the loss in reality) would have been -10.59% and -13.76% respectively”.

Dollar vs. inflation: impact of this comparison

What does that mean in real terms? In the words of Pablo Besmedrisnik, director of VDC Consultora, the following: “On average, at the end of the reference period they can purchase fewer goods and services given that any investment in those monetary assets had a negative real return.”

The same conclusion is reached when analyzing the fixed termwith a 9% monthly rate. “Let us remember that inflation is estimated to be close to 20% for January,” the specialist contextualizes.

In this context, Laura Pererya, director of PIN Capitalwarns that “there is no full coverage in the exchange of pesos against dollars, since “the impact is never linear.”

At the same time, the stagflationary panorama, properly ratified by the current president, tends to mean that savers have no greater margin than to use the surplus resources of their economy to “buy used goods, pay large card debts from the Christmas months or to fill up with fuel or pay for groceries”.

As Pereyra explains, “If there is no abundance of pesos in the market, there is no pressure on the exchange rate”, that is why it is possible that the inflation rate goes into crescendo and a lag going to the dollar.

In any case, in this scenario the financial analyst proposes controlling the default rate of the SMEsespecially those that still do not find abundant financing at competitive rates, and Physical persons. “More dollars sold to pay debt in pesos, instead of accumulating foreign currency to pay debt later,” he explains.

Alternatives to the dollar

The data show that the parallel dollars They remained an insufficient option in the search for a coverage method. What happens then with investment instruments?

Besmedrisnik analyzes the constitution of a UVA fixed term as a reasonable alternative for investors with liquidity needs in the next 6 months or for those who want to diversify their portfolio. It is important to remember that pre-cancellation no longer has a regulated rate.

However, the proximity of the harvest liquidation They generate expectations of devaluation of the official dollar, which eventually “can be transferred to alternative dollars.”

In turn, Morales explains that, under the BCRA’s decision to maintain negative real estate and push banks to buy treasury debt, the fixed rate bonds and CER bonds They also quote at very low rates: for example, the T2X4a CER bond that matures in July of this year, has an IRR of CER –56,17%.

For those who opt for a more risky profile, the specialist recommends investing in dollar bonds or stocks, considering the subjection to Argentine risk in the framework of the discussion of the Omnibus Law. It also offers the Adcap Wise Multistrategy, a mixed income fund with a long-term horizon and discretionary portfolio management based on the assets with the highest return potential.

In any case, for two months the search for investing has become difficult because the assets are various, but the problem is one: Today in the market there are almost no instruments that beat inflation.