Ámbito compiled the performance of both the fixed-term rate and the blue dollar and compared them with the CPI to determine who won the race in January and what to expect in March.
Fixed term, blue dollar or inflation: which won the race in February and what is expected for March
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The blue dollar is on track to close February with a loss of 12% (which in real terms is much more), while the rate of traditional fixed termfor its part, continues in 110% of TNA. Thus, during the second month of the year, savers They had almost no respite: Inflation won the race by a landslide.
The February inflation will be around 15%, indicate the first known private estimates. Let us remember that the CPI marked a 25.5% in December and 20.6% in Januarywhich implies that it would decelerate strongly, even though it is still at very high levels.
He Dolar bluefor its part, is heading to close with a decrease of 12.6% or what nominally implies a loss of $150. It should be noted that It started the second month of the year at $1,195 and would end at $1,045. A trend similar to what will happen with financial exchange rates.
Thus, both parallel dollars operate in lows since the beginning of the year and they hover around the value of illegal dollar. “Although it depends on the paper, it is the largest monthly drop since February 2014, when it fell 16.5%. Now we are down 16.2% measured with the action of Galicia,” explained the economist Salvador Vitelli.
Finally we will review what rate the traditional fixed term pays. Since he took over Javier Milei, was reduced interest rate from 113% to 110% for deposits traditional fixed term, which implies that, for a 30-day deposit, the yield is 9.1%. It should be noted that this interest rate is negative in real terms.
Fixed term, dollar and inflation: what to expect in March
“If you listen the motives why the dollar theoretically fell in February were: since there’s no moneyuntil exporters go cash with liquid and that lowers the price of the parallel exchange rate. In Marchthese characteristics do not change, on the contrary, that is, there will be less money because there is no recomposition of income and exports they would have to start getting older,” he told Ambit, the financial analyst Christian Buteler.
However, he considered that does not believe that this gap can be maintained and believes that the dollar should rebound. “The truth is that the blue dollar and inflation should be more or less even,” Buteler expanded. For this expert, Inflation should beat the dollar but only in a context of stabilization but he highlighted no, with the gap widening as happened in February. Lastly, regarding The possible “stability” of parallel exchange rates he said will depend a lot on February’s inflation number.
Source: Ambito
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