He dollar climbed strongly this Friday, March 1st in the Matba Rofex futures market, so the expectation of an acceleration of the crawling peg (controlled micro devaluations) of the official exchange rate, hours before the opening speech of ordinary sessions in Congress, by the president of Javier Milei.
Although in recent days an upward trend had already been observed in most contracts, this Friday’s increases caught the market’s attention due to their magnitude: Advances of up to almost 6% were recorded in the shortest terms.
In fact, the March contract scored a 5.5% jump to $930 (with an annual nominal rate of 143.7%), which clearly shows that the market expects a greater rate of rise in the official exchange rate, which this Friday closed in the spot market at $842.50.
In other words, this movement discounts that the US currency pass a crawling peg Of 2% (January and February), 10% for the third month of the year.
By the end of April, meanwhile, The dollar rose 4.6% to $975 (102.7% TNA), While for May increased 3.5% to $1,031 (93.9% TNA).
Already in June, the contract showed a similar increase of 3.6% to close at $1,120 (100.9% TNA). Starting in July, however, the increases were much more moderate, among 1.4% (July) to 2.8% (October).
“In the last half hour of operations, some orders were triggered, they probably infected the spot a little, which went up there, but the Central Bank corrected the prices a little, and then it was bought. It is likely that the expectation for this Friday’s speech of President Javier Milei has boosted prices”, a market source commented to Ambit.
From an operating table, they pointed out that “some market players were speculating that this Friday there would be an acceleration of the crawling peg in the spot market,” However, the Central Bank It adjusted just 30 cents to the official exchange rate, the lowest daily increase in the Milei era.
In these last five days, the rise of the wholesale dollar It was $3.60, against $3.90 the previous week. “There may have been some speculation with that and that triggered some buying orders, we’ll see,” the source added.
In a private report that circulated this Friday in the market, there was the possibility that the Government would be considering eliminating the Country Tax, which would have encouraged a greater hedging position among some investors.
Source: Ambito
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