Blue dollar in March: does it take off after a sharp decline or is the exchange rate prolonged?

He Dolar blue ended February with a sharp monthly drop after two months in a row operating upward. In this framework, in order to predict how this type of exchange will operate throughout Marchthe specialists they speculate with different scenarios for the parallel bill, which this Friday approached $1,000, after touching $1,255 at the end of last January, its historical nominal record.

He parallel dollar came from registering two hikes in December and Januarybut second month of 2024 presented an abrupt Change of trend, to the point that he scored a record low of the 13.8% (-$165) in just 29 days.

Blue dollar in February: political tensions did not impact the price

February was crossed by a conflict that had as protagonists the Government of Javier Milei already some governors. The reason for the dispute was distribution of co-participation funds. It started when the Governor of Chubut, Ignacio Torresled the signing of a letter together with five other Patagonian governors in which he warned that, if he did not receive the co-participating monthly disbursement, he would cut off the gas and oil supply.

The next step was to resort to Justice, where the province of Chubut Got a favorable ruling which determined the refinancing of its debt and the suspension of the withdrawal of funds carried out by the national government. However, the Executive responded that they would present a per saltum before the Supreme Court to reverse what was done by the federal justice system of the Patagonian province.

Under this scenario, Walter MoralesPresident of wisehe indicated to Ambit which is a unknown what can happen in March in a context in which The economy has ups and downs just like politics.“.

Blue dollar: the reasons for the decline in February

“The evolution of blue last month was surprising. Some said it was because lack of money. Others said it was because imports a percentage is settled cash with settlement (20%) and then by relationship “it remains under the blue and the MEP”he told this medium Christian Butlerfinancial analyst.

After two consecutive months of increases in the value of blue and with a inflation that remains in high levels despite having moderated in January (to 20.6%, from 25.5% in December) and is expected to do so again in February (around 15%), for many specialists This monthly decline in the parallel exchange rate was not expected.

For its part, Joel Lupieri of the EPyCa consultinghe indicated to Ambit there is a very low liquidity in the system that prevents there being a demand for dollars. As long as there are no pesos to validate an increase to a high nominal price of the ticket, it is difficult to maintain the price so high.”

Meanwhile, Gustavo Quintana, operator of PR Mercados de Cambios, told this medium that “the subscriptions of the BOPREAL also took pesos from the market” and pointed out that they were also carrying out “disarming of savings in dollars from individuals to meet current expenses“.

Blue dollar: what can happen in March 2024?

The analysts consulted agree that one of the factors that caused the decline of the blue dollar is the shortage of pesos. However, not everyone agrees in the evaluation regarding how the evolution of the parallel will continue.

On the one hand, Lupieri emphasizes that “this lack of liquidity appears to be temporary” and that “to the extent that salaries recover, the dollar will surely begin to rise.”

For Quintana, meanwhile, “everything seems to indicate that this calm trend will continue the first days of March”.

However, Butler raised a doubt regarding the stability of the variables and their current trends. “I do not see it as consistent to have an inflation of 15% monthly and a dollar that does not move”he warned.