The exchange market is going through a period of calm driven, mainly by the shortage of pesos, the liquefaction of income and a depressed official dollar.
Behind the devaluation of the official December dollar, he Central Bank (BCRA) It has been maintaining a crawling peg of 2% monthly and last Friday the market expected announcements of a jump in the exchange rate or the beginning of a dollarized path. But that was not confirmed in reality and On Monday the projections in that sense were diluted.
Happens that, with the high inflation of recent months that is consuming the competitiveness of that exchange rate, the expectation regarding Javier Milei’s announcement in Congress of an acceleration in the pace of devaluation of the wholesale dollar or a sharp exchange rate jump marked on Friday the evolution of parallel exchange rates and the futures market.
What happened to parallel dollars and futures
The fall in prices was so strong that it resulted in a forceful reduction of the exchange gap, the blue dollar reached $1,015, one step away from breaking $1,000, although the MEP surpassed it at $1,030.
The contracts of dollar futures that are listed on Matba-Rofex completely reversed the trend they showed on Friday, when they had risen very strongly in a short time. The contracts of future dollar plummeted 6% for the contract March ($873) and up to 5.5% for him April contract ($931). As he explained to Ambit he Epyca Consultores analyst Joel Lupierithis is because “on Friday he had a very atypical behavior due to speculation that the president would make an announcement regarding dollarization.”
Dollar: what is expected for March
He parallel dollar came from registering two hikes in December and Januarybut second month of 2024 presented an abrupt Change of trend, to the point that he scored a record low of the 13.8% (-$165) in just 29 days. And the trend continues this month and is confirmed now that the rumors of a possible devaluation of the peso in the short term have dissipated.
The Government considers that the kind of official change is reasonable and that the financial dollars were very expensive and thus they justify why It is not necessary to accelerate the pace of devaluation. In this way, they also remove rumors and expectations of a new strong devaluation, imminent dollarization and an acceleration of the crawling peg.
So, for the moment, everything seems to indicate that this calm trend will continue, at least, in the first days of March. However, forward analysts they pose a doubt regarding the stability of the variables and their current trends and they point out that it does not seem It is consistent to have inflation of 15% monthly and a dollar that practically does not move.
Source: Ambito
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