The MEP dollar and the “Cash with settlement” (CCL) do not stop falling. This happens in the middle of an important accumulation of reservesDoubts about the crawling-peg rhythm of the official dollarand the first consequences of the recession. Given this, it is worth asking, why is there an exchange rate appreciation in the midst of monetary uncertainty? What role do exporters and importers play?
As specified on this day Salvador VitelliHead of Research Romano Group, The MEP dollar at $1,015 is at nominal lows at the beginning of 2024, but in the lowest real value in 4 and a half years. A trend that comes to crown the performance of February when with the CCL fell 14.4%, while the MEP plummeted 12.2%.
The financial dollar is sinking: what are the causes behind it?
In dialogue with Ambitthe Economist Federico Glusteinhighlighted is that There is already a sales phenomenon as a consequence of the recession. “The actors need pesos for obligations and other emergencies and are selling foreign currency to obtain liquidity,” he specified.
At the same time, he added that, due to this aforementioned recession, Imports that were channeled in some segments to CCL decreased in the face of the closures caused by the previous Government administration, which reduces demand pressure, added to the payment of debt of small importers.
“To that we must add the purchase of almost 9 billion dollars by the BCRA since the beginning of the Milei era, along with agricultural income that is emerging as a breath of fresh air for international reserves. And we cannot ignore that The Government did not announce dollarization and there is a reduction of monetary emission in real terms along with a fiscal surplus, giving confidence to the national currency,” Glustein added.
For its part, from the Consultant 1816they highlighted that The supply from exporters does not seem to have decreased in February compared to January, which implies that there is a significant private supply in each wheel in the CCL.given that 20% of exports are settled in the financial market.
“But not always when there was a ‘blend’ of exports, the CCL appreciated, demand also plays a role. The economic contraction may partly explain why demand is insufficient in the face of supply from exporters. (Milei’s motto “there is no money”)”, the same consultancy closed.
Financial dollar vs. interest rate vs. inflation
A report of Don Capital explained that, while the peso maintains its appreciation trend and the CCL reaches real minimums since 2019, The interest rate (which is at 100% TNA) only covers 40% of the past January inflation (20.6%), 57% of the February estimate (14.5%) and 70% than expected for March (12%).
“Although the CCL ($1,060) has been lateralizing between $1,050/$1,300 since February, Macroeconomic risks and the negative real interest rate reduce certain positionings in investment strategies. carry trade“, they explained from the same liquidation agent.
In this regard, they highlighted that although the CCL is located at “low” short-term real levels (lows since 2019 and only 0.5% above the average since the end of 2015 at $1,055), but if we analyze only the period without CEPO, the current level It is still 49% higher than the average and 89% compared to the adjusted minimum of 2017 ($560).
“For the CCL to show these minimums again, it will be necessary eliminate controls on capital marketsand for that to happen, it will be essential achieve sustained fiscal balance, greater supply of dollars (and reduce its demand) with a significant stock of reserves, improve the BCRA balance sheet and increase the demand for pesos“, they closed.
Financial dollar: will it continue to fall or start to rise?
“We are with a gap of 23% and we saw lower values at the beginning of the administration. When asked, can it go lower? Yeahsince the importer is at approximately $995, although there are still cross restrictions,” he revealed Andres Reschini from F2 Financial Solutions.
Yamplió: “The success or not of what happens with what is associated with May Pact can mark the pulse as well as inflation data to reveal itself. passing cleanit will depend on the degree of success that the Government has and the confidence that this manages to generate.. For now the market supports.”
Source: Ambito
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