Analysts warn of the risks that the downward trend in parallel dollars will continue. The reasons for this warning signal in the market.
The MEP dollar, the blue and the Cash with settlement (CCL) continue with bearish trend this Wednesday. The first two have already reached $1,000 and the stock market is the cheapest exchange rate of the parallels these days. It seems like a positive fact, but market analysts look with concern that dynamic.
One of the voices that warns about this situation is Salvador Di Stefanoan expert in finance and business, who warns Ambit that “the Government should arbitrate the necessary means so that parallel dollars do not continue to fall because, if the CCL dollar breaks $950, it will be cheaper to import with that exchange rate than at the official one, that is, buying the currencies from the Government through the Central Bank (BCRA).”
And the dollar that importers pay is quoted at $933.56 and the CCL is at $1,015 in the market, it fell $72.76 in just three days. Meanwhile, the blue was located at $960 for purchase and $990 for sale and fell $20 on the day, while the MEP traded below that value at $982.
Dollars below $1,000: a problem for foreign trade
Although this drop in exchange rates is good news for the inflation to come, such a strong drop in parallel dollarson the one hand, would encourage imports and, on the other, could channel export dollars from the official market (who go to BCRA towards financial dollars).
For his part, the economist Federico Glustein warns that, with regard to foreign trade, this drop in the dollar discourages exports because the producer “perceives that the return he now obtains by settling part of his sales in the CCL and another in the official market falls, which discourages the foreign exchange income from foreign trade.” He highlights, so a dollar below $1,000 plays against the liquidation of currencies in the market.
Likewise, he points out that “when the salary in pesos falls, the salary appreciates in foreign currency and that can result in an increase in the consumption of imported products.” On the other hand, he warns that these values encourage the purchase of currencies by people, who perceive that parallel currencies are very cheap.
Source: Ambito
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