The international report of March FocusEconomicswhere 40 expert economists from national and foreign banks and consulting firms made new forecasts for the price of the official dollar, inflation and activity levels for next end of December.
How much could the official dollar reach at the end of the year?
In a scenario of certain “stability” of the market, with a BCRA that strengthened its reserves and a consumer price index (CPI) which slowed more than 7 percentage points (13.2% in February compared to 20.6% in January), analysts estimate that the wholesale dollar will close the year at $1,702about $100 below the previous report’s projections for the same period.
In that sense, economists agreed that the 2% crawling-pegpreset by the BCRA, since it is not sustainable over time, because monthly inflation greatly exceeds it.
Triple-digit inflation by 2024 and GDP contraction
Meanwhile, despite the slowdown in inflation in January, they predict that Prices will increase by 287.7% on average in 2024. Although it represents a reduction of 9.2 percentage points compared to the previous month’s survey, It is an increase of 76.3 pp compared to the 2023 index.
“This year the inflation will be driven by the removal of price controls and the narrowing the gap between exchange rates official and parallel. He fiscal adjustmenthe money supply growth and the changes in the exchange rate regime are key factors to monitor”, they highlighted from FocusEconomics.
Furthermore, the report warns of a drop in activity and as a consequence of growth: analysts projected that the GDP will contract a 2.7% in 2024, 0.3 percentage points less than a month ago.
“GDP will take a hit this year as domestic demand is affected by measures to correct macroeconomic imbalances, such as the fiscal adjustment sustained, the devaluation of currency and the removal of controls of prices. A good performance of the agricultural sector will partially cushion the slowdown,” the economists noted.
Therefore, they considered that the parliamentary support for government reforms and the social unrest “These are factors to take into account.”
Dollar at the end of the year
There is a consensus that the price of the wholesale dollar at the end of December 2024 will be at $1,701.80, a value that represents a drop of about $103 compared to the previous forecast, made in December, where the value of this exchange rate It was expected to be $1,805 for that same date.
“The peso should depreciate in the future. Fiscal adjustment is a factor to take into account”concludes the writing.
In this way, the wholesale exchange rate would suffer an increase throughout 2024 of close to 110.5%. Thus, it would be about 177.5 percentage points below the projected inflation (287.7%).
Source: Ambito
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