Let us remember that a few days ago, the Central Bank (BCRA) surprised the market with a sharp drop in monetary policy rates, which brought them to 80%, and, at the same time, eliminated the minimum rate on fixed terms, that is, it deregulated it, with the aim of favoring a “greater competition in the banking field and provide consumers with more favorable conditions for their savings and investments.
As expected, the banks modified their interest rate for fixed-term placements in pesos below that proposed by the organization in charge of Santiago Bausilli, cutting the interest rate by up to 40 points.
The blue dollar and the financial ones are at very low price levels, with the illegal and the MEP around $1,035 and the Cash With Settlement (CCL) close to $1,040. Thus, the gap with the official dollar is close to 20% in all cases. With inflation of 13.2% in February, the blue dollar recorded a decrease record of 13.8% ($165) in 29 days. And in March, when the consumer price index could be around that level or a little higher, that exchange rate falls 5% compared to the price at the beginning of the month.
He who bet on the dollar and the rate lost: what to invest in now
Thus, whoever bet on either of these two instruments in the last time lost relative to inflation in the short and medium term at least.
When looking for alternatives, to the economist Elena Alonso“the negotiable obligations They are a good option because they yield a rate in dollars” and the analyst considers that the exchange rate will have a correction at some point. Thus, for her, having an income in that currency seems positive to me going forward.
Likewise, thinking about other types of assets, the Mutual funds and the Cedears portfolios, as an option to diversify the portfolio and become dollarized. And, on the other hand, he thinks that “they are also very interesting and the AL30 AND AL38 bonds”, which have come with good prices in recent times because they are risky investments, but consider that “they are a good long-term option.”
Matías Marsicano, stock market producer and graduate in Finance, For his part, he points out that “the lowering of rates allows competition between banks”, on the one hand, but the lowering of inflation means that the investor must have to start thinking about other types of instruments.
CER and sovereign bonds, an option
In this scenario, he believes that “a CER bond, long or medium term, to see if inflation rebounds, going forward.” However, he warns that if inflation continues to slow and reaches single digits, as the Government expects, it is not an attractive investment.
On the other hand, he points out that sovereign bonds are a good instrument to be stopped today, but warns that the fixed exchange rate “is a variable that plays against these fixed income assets.”
Thus, Marsicano assures that there is no alternative but to “seek returns in riskier assets.” And, in that group, he mentions Argentine stocks as an option, focusing on banks, for example, which have very good performance. He also does not rule out the idea of diversifying the portfolio with Cedears, but warns that its value has risen a lot in recent times.
In a similar sense Sergio González, Head of Asset Management at Cohen Aliados Financieros, points out that “lower rates favor higher risk assets, where some returns could be captured” to the detriment of fixed-term deposits and money market funds, which in the first two months of the year had been a star investment.
UVA fixed term, another instrument
In this context, for the patient retail investor, the UVA fixed term is a good alternative as are CER-adjusted bonds, which are beginning to become more attractive. And, on the other hand, González considers that “the actions are going to be very tied to what happens at the political and economic level, although the banks can be very attractive because this deregulation of the rate benefits them.”
Likewise, he warns, on the other hand, that, if the government’s expectation regarding the evolution of prices is confirmed, “as inflation slows down, if this process is sustained, the rate will improve its brightness.” ”. And if it remains at current levels, the rate will be less negative with respect to lower inflation over time.
The MEP dollar, to play it safe although with little profit
Meanwhile, although the dollar has been losing relative to inflation, economist Christian Buteler maintains that “we can take advantage of the price drop today, which has been very strong.” He considers that this is an opportunity to buy in a context in which the US currency has been losing against an accumulated inflation of around 71.3% in three months.
According to his vision, “it is a good opportunity to buy the MEP dollar, for example, which is around $1,030 via AL30 bonds” because it indicates that it is most likely that the difference in price evolution with the dollar will be adjusted with time, although he does not believe that this year the CPI will beat the US currency.
Source: Ambito
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