Luis Caputo promises to lift stocks and the market readjusts portfolios: dollar, bonds, stocks or Cedears, what to bet on?

Both the president Javier Milei as the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, aim to begin to show results in the real economy and, for this, it is a necessary condition to lift the stocks on the dollar. Despite this There are analysts who still affirm that the conditions are not in place to dismantle this scaffolding of restrictions.. For the moment, the BCRA continues to acquire reserves and the Government achieved twin surpluses for the second consecutive month.

Lifting the stocks on the dollar: is it close or far?

We already know that the Government aims to achieve the lifting of the exchange rate in the medium term. In this context, the BCRA continues to buy dollars in the MULC, while the existence of the “blend” dollar (80% MULC and 20% CCL) continues to boost liquidations of exporters while waiting for the thick harvest. This allowed net reserves to improve, although they still remain in negative territory.

“All this led the market to wonder when exchange controls could be removed and exchange rates unified. We consider that this may not happen in the short term, with the BCRA showing that, even with a low exchange rate gap, recently preferred to lower rates to continue the liquefaction of real stocks in pesos, rather than moving forward with perhaps a relaxation in exchange restrictions. We consider that, to unify, the government will wait until it has more reserves, with a firmer and more sustained fiscal consolidation and with somewhat tighter relative prices than today,” he told Ambit, Juan Manuel Franco Chief Economist of SBS Group.

It should be noted that last week, the Central Bank decided to lower the economy’s reference rate, in 20 percentage points, going from 100% annually to 80% annually. That same day he also ordered the elimination of the minimum rate for term placements, so that Each entity can now choose at what level it remunerates fixed terms.

“It is true that in the last month it has resonated in the media and in President Milei’s own words the intention to unify the exchange market as soon as possible. Also, let us remember that in the statement of the seventh review of the International Monetary Fund program published in February, it is made explicit that the National Government was committed to dismantling the restrictions and putting together a new exchange rate scheme with a horizon in June of this year,” he told AmbitMelina Di Napoli, Wealth Management Product Analyst at Balanz Capital.

Given the possible lifting of the stocks on the dollar, what can you invest in?

Taking this context into account, Di Napoli from Balanz assured that one option is the positioning in dollar-linked fixed income assets, in order to capture the effects of the eventual unification. “At Balanz we have the Dollar Fixed Income Fund linkedcomposed mainly of assets that accrue the evolution of the official exchange rate (dollar link promissory notes and dollar link corporate bonds mostly)”, he explained.

In this regard, the expert explained that The fund’s performance is the evolution of the official dollar + 7% based on data from March 15. However, he clarified that “the fund’s horizon is for the medium term, although it does not have a minimum permanence period to invest.” For those who prefer to opt for isolated assets, from Balanz They found it interesting the dollar link T2V4 bond that currently yields -4% TNA devaluation.

For Di Napoli, “Our investment strategy in general does not change in the selection of Argentine fixed and variable income instruments, but we believe that there will be new products available to investors in general. For example, during February, we participated in the listing of the shares of Distribuidora Gas del Centro SA. and we believe that these market transactions will be more recurrent in the financial opening of the market.”

For its part, for Frank of SBS Groupwithin what is fixed income in dollars, The asset with the best risk-return ratio is Global bonds. “We are constructive in the medium term, not without warning that potential political-social tensions in a recessive context and depressed real incomes could bring short term volatility“, specific.

Meanwhile, in relation to equities, from the SBS Group, the sector weighted as the one with the most possibilities of rising in this context is the energeticand they see value in medium term in companies like Vista Energy, YPF, Pampa Energía, Transportadora de Gas del Sur, Transportadora de Gas del Norte and Central Puerto”.

For its part, Mateo ReschiniOnshore Strategist Inviuhe told Ambit that, in the event of a lifting of the stocks, thinking about fixed income options we would have to opt for dollar links bonds, such as the TV24 and the T2V4.

“For what it is variable income maybe it’s a little complicated. If the dollar stocks are lifted, the bank papers may take on more relevance. Then there are the exporters (Ternium and Aluar) but it seems to me that previous rallies made them relatively expensive. It is better to go with fixed rent“, hill.