Attracted by the returns that betting on the carry trade Argentines returned to repatriate capital from abroad last February for a total of US$94 million. So since the advent of the libertarian administration, it is estimated that the net inflow of foreign currency by resident Argentines amounted to US$404 million.
Without a doubt, the stability recorded in the exchange market and the improvement in several financial indicators such as country risk, encouraged, in addition to the cut in the monetary policy interest rate – from 100% to 80% nominal annual – the Central Bank (BCRA), to intensify bets on carry, that is, on the peso. In this way, the so-called Net formation of external assets of residents of the non-financial private sector (FAE) registered a surplus result of 94 million dollars last February.
How was this positive FAE formed? On the one hand, there were net sales of banknotes for US$57 million and, on the other, a net flow of foreign currency income for US$38 million.
Regarding the result of banknotes, it was explained by the net sales of legal entities for US$59 million that were partially offset by net purchases by individuals for US$2 million. That is, companies sold more and families the opposite.
The latest data from the BCRA thus show that individuals and families bought tickets for US$14 million in February, which is 29% less than in January and 89% less than a year ago; and at the same time they made sales for US$13 million. Regarding the number of people who operated, there was an abrupt drop in the number of buyers to only 95,000, almost half of previous months and well below the 700,000 average last year while those who sold tickets were about 207,000. individuals.
It is worth remembering that since mid-December last AFIP Resolution 5463 came into effect, which increased the rates of the Income and Personal Property Tax. that are received in the purchase of foreign currency for hoarding reasons and in expenses in foreign currency with a card, at 30% and 0%, respectively. Thus, the total surcharge on these consumptions rose to 60% (30% via COUNTRY tax and the remaining 30% as collection of Income or Personal Assets tax, as appropriate).
On the other hand, in addition to net ticket sales, net income to own accounts from abroad was also recorded for a total of US$38 million. According to the BCRA, this result is mainly explained by the net income of the Real Sector excluding Oilseeds and Cereals for US$43 million, of Institutional Investors and others for US$19 million and of Oilseeds and Cereals for US$2 million. These flows were partially offset by net transfers made by individuals for US$26 million.
It should be noted that individuals purchased net a total of US$229 million, mainly for travel expenses and other consumption made with cards with non-resident suppliers with a net result of US$227 million.
While the Financial Sector showed an exchange deficit of US$569 million due to the increase in the liquid foreign assets of the entities that make up the General Exchange Position (PGC) for US$522 million, due to the net subscription of securities for u $9 million and net expenses from financial loans and lines of credit for $38 million.
In this way, banks ended February with a PGC stock of US$7,437 million, which meant an increase of 8% compared to the close of the previous month. The BCRA explains that the deficit was due to the increase in the holding of foreign currency for US$738 million, which was partially offset by the fall in the holding of banknotes for US$216 million.
Thus, banks’ holdings of foreign currency notes totaled US$5,479 million at the end of Februarystock that represented 74% of the total PGC and that is kept by the entities to meet the movements of local deposits in foreign currency and the needs of the exchange market.
In relation to positions in the futures market, banks closed February with a forward sold position in foreign currency for US$817 million, which implies a monthly increase of about US$530 million. During February, the entities sold US$518 million directly to clients forwards yu$s12 million in institutionalized markets.
On the one hand, foreign capital entities closed February with a net sold position of US$343 million, stretching their sold position compared to the previous month by US$239 million, while national entities sold US$292 million and increased their position. net sales from the previous month up to US$474 million.
Source: Ambito
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