The market remains optimistic. The variable income, Even with certain ups and downs, it still has good opportunities in some sectors, just as it was in March for US stocks. financial sector. The economy seems to be running along two different paths: that of a shrinking activity and that of the financial market, where the appetite for risk assets is growing and there are papers, such as those of Macro Bank, that They have already doubled their value so far this year.
In that scenario, the S&P Merval accumulated in the first three months of the year an improvement of close to 28% measured in pesos and 17% in dollars (CCL). Meanwhile, bonds in pesos gained profitability of more than 20% in dollars.
CER titles were the star of last month, with advances of more than 16%, while dollar linked had greater retraction mainly due to the will of the Central Bank to continue with the policy of not accelerating the crawling peg of 2% monthly.
Now, April has a challenging outlook ahead mainly because the Government will play one of its most difficult cards before society: the increase in rates that will fully impact the real economy and the question that arises is: will the social support? Will the path of disinflation continue?
On the side of the risks, The consulting firms foresee that the challenges are focused on the governance and social reaction closely following the political capital of the Government and the support to the administration.
Another point that they highlight to follow carefully is the sustainability of fiscal results linked to stepping on expenses, liquefying retirements, taking advantage of the sharp rise in the PAIS Tax, which goes against the grain with a rapid exit from the exchange rate, in the middle of a strong recession.
Taking this brief analysis into account, what options are the most recommended for the month of April?
Actions: the preference for Oil & Gas continues and a sector begins to stand out
“We are seeing that the fiscal efforts of the Milei government and its success in slowing inflation are suggesting an increase in exposure to Argentine equities in portfolios,” he explained. Ezequiel FernandezResearch Director at Balanz a Ambit.
In that sense, he stated that investor sentiment “is positive” and highlighted the following roles: Transportadora Gas del Sur, Pampa Energía and Loma Negra.
“TGS It has growth opportunities in midstream, which is the infrastructure that will be needed to realize the potential of Vaca Muerta. Furthermore, he highlighted Pampa Energy because being an integrated company, it has a wide range of possibilities to invest in different sub-sectors of the energy industry and it has a still reasonable valuation.”
Finally, he added regarding Black Hill that “it is a good ‘dividendera’ (above 10% annual yield) and there could be a positive surprise in the sale of the Intercement controlling block.”
Bonds in dollars: until when will the rally continue and what profitability is expected?
Juan Pedro Mazza, Mr. Fixed Income Strategist Cohen Financial Alliesfor his part, asserted that the dollar bonds they continue with their historic rally, advancing 37% so far this year and 80% since last November’s presidential runoff.
“Looking ahead to what is to come, Our perspective is that there is still room for increases, since the yield curve still has some way to go to normalize. If the entire curve returned to an IRR of 15% as at the end of the restructuring, bonds would have to increase between 11% and 28%. In view of this, our recommendation is a portfolio that combines a aggressive position in a short tranche bond with greater potential in the rises, like the GD30, with a somewhat more defensive position in a long-term bond, such as GD35”.
Finally, in the fixed income segment, IEB Group highlighted his exposure to assets in dollars at 10%, leaving the portfolio positioned 60% in dollars and 40% in pesos.
“The CCL in real terms fell 40% since Milei took office and is at similar levels to 2019 prior to the PASO of that year. In April we believe some pressure may return to the CCL. There will be a greater demand from those importers who have tendered the Bopreal and who will be able to access the CCL for the difference between the face value and the sale price in dollars of the bond in the secondary market. Although the liquidation of the thick harvest begins, which will increase the supply, given that in the current scheme they are obliged to liquidate 20% through the CCL, it is not clear that it will counteract the greater potential demand,” they explained.
“With respect to assets in dollarswe still see value in hard dollar sovereign bonds, In particular we like the GD30 to which we assign 40% of the portfolio. Although it is at maximum parities in terms of IRR, it still has room to compress if we go towards a normalization of the curve, which leaves it with an interesting potential upside,” they add.
As for the variable incomeIEB recommended take profits in Vista Energy and continues to see value in Oil & Gas shares (YPF, TGS, Pampa Energía), in the regulated sector (TGN, TRAN, CEPU, AUSO, DGCU) and in banks, leaning towards BBAR and BMA.
Source: Ambito
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