Strong appetite for Argentine assets: bonds and stocks rose up to 12%; country risk sank to almost 1,200 points

Argentine stocks and bonds extended their bullish rally this Monday, April 8 and climbed, in some cases, up to 12%in response to positive expectations about the future of the local economy, which triggers opportunity purchases due to attractive returns.

In fixed income, sovereign securities nominated in dollars rose up to 6.8% in the Buenos Aires stock market, to accumulate increases of up to 10.3% so far in April.

Thus, the risk country measured by JP Morganse bank It sank 7.5% to 1,205 units, its lowest level since September 2020.

“For now, the apex of the program has been ‘going well’ in a context of return of global liquidity that buys the history behind the adjustment, generating a collapse in the country risk from 2,600 basis points to below 1,300 points and a new financial party that today is not enough to open external credit”, they said from the consulting firm EcoGo.

In the weight segment, the bonds that adjust for CER (inflation) also operated with firm advances, in a week (Friday) in which the CPI data for March will be known. Thus, the promotions were led by the CUAP (+9.5%); the DIP0 (+8.7%); and the TX28 (+5.1%).

S&P Merval

For its part, the S&P Merval rose led by energy and financial companieswhich printed a improvement of 1.3% to 1,229,654 units.

The main increases were for Black Hill (+11.9%); IRSA (+4.2%); and Transener (+4.1%). Meanwhile, the casualties were for Pampa Energy (-2.2%); Southern Gas Carrier (-2.2%); and Mirgor (-1.7%).

Market sources pointed to Ambit that, the rise of Loma Negra, both in Buenos Aires and in New York, could be supported by the speculation that at any moment its sale will close. However, beyond that, the two cement companies are flying, both Loma Negra, like Holcim (+7.3%). “They were very behind with respect to other actions,” the source said.

On the other hand, in the market they point out that This Tuesday the official announcement of the sale of the HSBC bank operation to the local Galicia would be made, controlled by the GFG. The entities did not confirm the operation, which would be around 500 million dollars.

Argentine shares on Wall Street

For their part, the shares of Argentine companies listed on the New York market operated with a strong upward trend. Leading the increases were the papers of Black Hill (+11.4%), IRSA (+5.6%), and Ternium (+3.4%).

Meanwhile, the casualties were for Southern Gas Carrier (-2.4%); Pampa Energy (-1.4%), and Free market (-0.8%).

Positive expectations for a quick recovery of the economy They promote positions in assets, although a cautious waiting period is maintained until a decree is discussed in Congress. (DNU) presidential that deregulates the economy.

The official initiative was rejected by the Senate and must now be debated in the Chamber of Deputies to define its validity.

A no less important fact is that on Friday the inflation number for March published by the statistics agency Indec will be known. “With an accumulation of reserves (from the central bank -BCRA-) at full steam, and a harvest that ensures a large supply of foreign currency in the coming months, financial dollars continue to be punctured, given that operators recognize that flows continue in command at this stage,” Ber said.

Meanwhile, “if the CPI (consumer price index) for March to be released this week is around 10% as the Government says, it would be lower than expected and represents a notable improvement. However, the hidden side is that the recession may be greater than expected, acting as a price anchor,” estimated economist Roberto Geretto.

He added that “if inflation shows another sign of strong deceleration, it is very likely that there will be another rate cut. This is not only to continue reducing the endogenous issuance of money, but also to lower the negative carry in dollars of the BCRA that arises from the differential between interest and devaluation rates”.