On Friday, these prices advanced $ 6.50 and $ 7.58, respectively, amid the bad mood generated in the market by the rejection of the Chamber of Deputies to the 2022 Budget bill, a key step in the negotiation that is being carried out the country with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a large debt.
From the consulting firm PPI, they highlighted that “the low stock of international reserves (u $ s6,063 million with SDR and gold) forces the authorities to manage the tension between a greater adjustment of the ‘Exchange Stock’ and a slowdown in economic activity, pending an eventual agreement with the Fund to clarify the picture“.
The recent rejection of the budget of the ruling party in the Chamber of Deputies suggests that the understanding with the body could delay its arrival, so it should not be surprising that this tension intensifies during the summer.
On the other hand, the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, said that “the focus will continue to be on possible progress with the IMF and the delineation of a sustainable and achievable plan “.
The dollar in 2021
When analyzing the data from the end of the year, it can be affirmed that the BCRA continued with its policy of ‘crawling peg’ for the retail and wholesale dollar, but – unlike in 2020 – in 2021 the currency did not follow the evolution of inflation.
Eleven and a half months later, Projections suggest that the official retail dollar will end the year with a price of $ 109, with an increase of 22.47%, while the “wholesaler” will close around 103 pesos, with a rise of 24.09% internationally..
The stock market dollars – and if the December trend continues – could close 2021 within a range of between $ 195 and $ 210, which will represent an increase of between 40% and 45%.
In the informal sector, the blue dollar -after reaching a record mark of $ 207 last November 11-, will close the year at around $ 200 per unit, with an increase of 33.3% compared to the value of the last business day of 2020 .
For market analysts, the main causes that determined the rise in alternative dollars are monetary liquidity, fiscal red, and an estimated annual inflation of around 50%.
The blue dollar finished flat at $ 200 for the second day in a row after showing a 50-cent rise for much of the day, according to a survey of Ambit in the Black Market of Foreign Currency.
The informal dollar came from rising in three of the last four days, and during the day it came to operate at $ 200.50, a value that had already been registered at the beginning of the month.
Thus, the gap with the wholesale official closed the day at 95.8%, after reaching the highest level in two weeks during the day.
Recall that the parallel dollar accumulated throughout the last week a rally of $ 3.50, representing its first rise in a month.
Despite the new advance, so far in December, the informal dollar registers a decline of $ 1.50. It should be remembered that in November it had shown a rise of $ 4 (+ 2%), after climbing $ 11.50 (+ 6.2%) in October.
Official dollar
The wholesale dollar rose 15 cents to $ 102.13, with the constant regulation of the BCRA. In a day with low business volume, the North American currency operated very laterally around the official regulation values.
For the sixth consecutive round, the Central Bank closed its daily participation with a favorable balance due to its intervention: it achieved purchases for US $ 25 million in 5 days, a meager amount but that contrasts with the losses suffered since the beginning of the month.
As it is, the Today the dollar rose four cents this Monday to $ 107.61 -without taxes-, according to the average of the main banks in the financial system. In turn, the retail value of the currency at Banco Nación remained at $ 107.
The saving dollar or solidarity dollar -which includes 30% of the COUNTRY tax, and a 35% on account of the Income Tax- advanced seven cents to $ 177.56.
Source From: Ambito
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