In the peso segment, the bonds that adjust for CER (inflation) also operated with firm advances, in a week (Friday) in which the CPI data for March will be known. Thus, the promotions were led by CUAP (+9.5%); the DIP0 (+8.7%); and the TX28 (+5.1%).
Sovereign bonds in dollars continue their rally. This Monday, for example, sovereign securities denominated in dollars climbed up to 6.8% in the Buenos Aires stock market, to accumulate increases of up to 10.3% so far in April. Thus, the risk country measured by JP Morgan bank It sank 7.5% to 1,205 units, its lowest level since September 2020.
Hard-dollar sovereign bonds gained 5.0%, reflected by an increase of 4.6% in New York law bonds and 5.7% in Argentine law bonds, according to Cohen Aliados Financieros. In this way, they register a gain of 8.8% over the course of the month and 49% so far this year. Consequently, the parities average 54.3% and the country risk experienced a decrease of 94 bp, reaching 1,205 bp, a level similar to that observed after the debt restructuring in 2020.
“For now, the apex of the program has been ‘going well’ in a context of return of global liquidity that buys the history behind the adjustment, generating a collapse in the country risk from 2,600 basis points to below 1,300 points and a new financial party that today is not enough to open external credit,” said the consulting firm EcoGo.
In the peso segment, the bonds that adjust for CER (inflation) also operated with firm advances, in a week (Friday) in which the CPI data for March will be known. Thus, the promotions were led by CUAP (+9.5%); the DIP0 (+8.7%); and the TX28 (+5.1%).
The fine adjustment carried out by the Government, which includes a marked reduction of interest rates and the lifting of restrictions in various markets, along with measures aimed at combating inflation, generates enthusiasm in the market. Additionally, inflation is showing signs of slowing, with private estimates indicating the core is around 10%. While the Central Bank (BCRA) continues its dollar buying streak.
Another key factor in the bond rally is the fiscal consolidation achieved in January and which was extended to February and is expected in March. However, the main challenge here is the sustainability of these measures. Progress in reducing energy subsidies is also highlighted.
Fever for the AL30
The decline in the dollar coincided with the rise in sovereign bonds. Investors who want to hedge in dollars choose one of the two instruments. Now the bets are on the bonds that rise daily and force some to say that they are reaching their ceiling and others, more optimistic, that they still have a way to go. The AL30D bond, the most traded in the market, rose 200% in dollars in 18 months. It should be remembered that in October 2022 it was trading at $19.6 and yesterday it closed at $58.70.
The advance of Argentine bonds was linked “to the continuity of the greater investment appetite, excited by the economic ‘roadmap’ that is being carried out despite the political tug-of-war“, economist Gustavo Ber told Ámbito. Specifically, expectations are growing in the market that there could be progress in the coming weeks to accelerate the exit from the exchange rate (that is, getting the famous US$15,000 million to unlock the restrictions in the MULC).
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Reuters
In this context, the sovereign bond AL30 is rising sharply in recent days. This lowers the country risk and, given a scenario that seems to be close to its price ceiling, may make other tools more attractive.
So far this year, it has accumulated an increase of more than 30% in dollars. Since November 19, when Javier Milei won the presidency in the second electoral round against former minister Sergio Massa, the AL30 price has accumulated a gain that would exceed 100% in US currency. That is, it practically doubled in just four months.
Source: Ambito
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