He dollar comes with a downward trend in Argentina and the Central Bank (BCRA) has already implemented four reductions in monetary policy rates since the current government took office, which has a negative impact on the fixed term performance. Thus, the most attractive investment instrument for small savers had become UVA deposits, but the inflationary slowdown It seems to change the approach of the game. What should we put the weights on now?
In that context, the finance expert and city guru Salvador Di Stefanonotes that “the dollar is no longer an object of desire“. And it indicates that the Government is playing to step on the exchange rate and, consequently, points out that, “since Javier Milei took office until today, it has risen barely 3%.”
In precise numbers, so far in 2024, the Dolar blue rose 1.5%, the MEP rose 4.8% and the Cash With Settlement (CCL) 12.2%. That, against an accumulated inflation close to 60% until April, which leaves the US currency as a savings instrument that loses against the price dynamics of the economy.
Dollar vs traditional fixed term and UVA
In addition, Andrés Reschini, analyst at F2 Soluciones Financieras, points out that The rise in alternative dollars does not reach 1.5% so far this month. “We can think that, in May, with the arrival of a greater volume of the thick harvest, if we do not have surprises from the politics, social climate and external front, alternative FX will not look attractive,” he anticipates.
On the other hand, the traditional fixed term in banks offers a 50% annual rate in some cases, it will probably go down again. That is equivalent to a 4.2% monthly effective yieldwell below inflation in March, which was 11%, and even more compared to that expected for April, which will be between 8% and 10%, according to expectations.
Let us remember that the last time the BCRA modified the rates It was a few days ago and he located it in the 60% annual nominal (TNA), well below the 133% it received from the previous administration. Thus, the banks adjusted their offer of fixed-term performance for savers and now provide between 50% and 60% annuallyalthough, in some cases, they are even below that range and reach 40% because they expect more declines in the future.
Traditional fixed term, in the short term?
Thus, as stated the economist Elena Alonso“in the short term, the fixed term is more convenient than the dollarbecause it doesn’t beat inflation, but reports an income of 5% monthlyHowever, he points out that, “in the short term, there are better options, such as stock securities, virtual wallets and investment funds.”
Consequently, if the UVA fixed term has the disadvantage that it is 180 days, Di Stéfano considers that, “of the three, it is the winning option because “It allows you to protect yourself from inflation and gives you an additional annual point.”.
It happens that Reschini explains that “The UVA PFs that adjust for CER have in their favor that this index is running behind and, in a context of decreasing inflation, with negative rates, they have an advantage.” In fact, he reports that, in April the stock of PF UVA not only stopped the fall that it showed in March, but also began to grow and on the 24th April accumulated an increase of 11.6%, very similar to the growth shown by traditional PFs for the same period (in nominal terms).
Where to put the pesos with the drop in the dollar, the rate and inflation
However, for Alonso, “in the current inflation context deceleratingit is not so convenient UVA fixed term. Consider that it is better to think about other types of investments, such as a mutual fund, sovereign bonds, assets that follow the dollar and/or stock portfolios. “Although they are more volatile, they give the possibility of having higher returns,” says the economist.
Thus, for her, although About two months ago a UVA fixed term was an interesting option, it’s not so good anymore. However, there is a consensus among analysts that, if it is not necessary to have the money in the long term, it is an option that, for the moment, seems more convenient than the dollar and the traditional fixed term.
Source: Ambito
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