Blue dollar in May: will the exchange rate continue or will it begin to rise strongly?

The blue dollar managed to end in green in April and end a bearish streak that lasted between February and March, since so far in 2024, only January had ended higher, same period in which it hit an annual high when it advanced to $1,255. After that, the illegal bill began to lateralize and moved in a reduced range between $1,100 and $1,000. But, What could happen to the blue dollar during May?

It should be noted that the illegal bill is part of the so-called parallel exchange rates, among which is also the MEP and the Cash With Settlement (CCL), which pivot in the same price range as blue.

For economist Gustavo Ber, “beyond the delay in settlements due to climate issues (they would be accelerated soon), During May the calm scenario would continue due to the foreign exchange surpluswhereby “financial dollars would continue in the range of $1,050/$1,100.”

Blue dollar: events that threaten tranquility in May

Among the events that could disturb the tranquility, for Bercould be found a setback in the Bases Law and fiscal packageas well as a more challenging external climate that drives the depreciation of emerging currencies.

It should be noted that the ruling party is moving forward with the Omnibus bill, which, this time, contains 223 articles and will impact the public works, privatizations of State agencies and labor reform, depending on which articles are finally approved.

In turn, from the external factor, it will be known at the next meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed)if it will be possible a reduction in short-term interest rates. Longer period of higher rates impacts stock markets, led by wall street, and also hits the valuation of emerging assets even more strongly, such as Latin American currencies. The external factor is also conditioned by upsurges in war conflicts.

Parallel dollars: what factors could push upwards

For the economist Federico Glustein, There are several factors that could raise parallel exchange rates. First, “we will have to see what happens with the soy liquidationwe are in a moment where it would be a quarter of great importance in foreign exchange incomeat the same time that the exchange appreciation begins to reduce a small part of the settlement with a market that, in the futures, foresees a depreciation of 5% monthly, against 2% of the official crawling-peg“.

A report from the consultant Romano Group revealed that the liquidation of agriculture continues to slow down, mainly due to rains (oil strike is added) and low pricing on the delivered merchandise, which is mostly to be fixed. “We hope to see greater participation from oilseed-cereal complex for the next few days, taking into account the dry days that favor threshing,” they specified.

For Glustein, “calm will be with the dollar blend toolwhere that 20% is available to settle exporters to the CCL, which allows them to improve the terms of trade.”

In turn, he mentioned that It would be necessary to analyze the monthly performance of tools in pesos, which today is below 6%, with inflation that continues in double digits. It should be noted that the BCRA reported last Thursday, through the SIOPEL system, a new reduction in monetary policy rates of 10 points and took it to 60%. It was about the fourth rate cut and the second in a monthwhich led to a new drop in the yields of fixed terms.

“Despite that, the advantage of these against the depreciation of the exchange rate of recent months is that positions in national currency won“compared the expert.

Finally, Glustein expressed: “I would add certain demand from the industrial sector, that depends on the external sector for intermediate goods, together with the release of demand from the stocks to become official currency, putting pressure on parallels. Therefore, I think there would be some noise in the value of the parallelsa slight increase but little progress for May, with an increase of up to 5%”.