Unstoppable blue dollar: it accelerated its rise and crossed the $1,200 barrier, very close to its record

He Dolar blue experienced a notable increase of $110 between Monday and Tuesday to reach $1,230 and approach its record face value of $1,255 reached in late January.

With this sharp increase, The gap with the official dollar widened to 38.4%the highest level since last February 7.

Blue dollar: the causes of the rise and what the market anticipates

The strong rebound of the blue dollar was influenced by the sixth rate reduction of the Central Bank (BCRA), led by Santiago Bausili. After learning that inflation returned to single digits (8.8%), The monetary authority decided last Tuesday to lower its monetary policy rate by 10 percentage points, placing it at 40%.

Economists and financial analysts consulted by this means agreed that This measure had a direct impact on the increase of the blue dollar, because maintaining pesos and investing them in fixed terms is increasingly less attractive. In most banks, where returns were already negative, The rate was adjusted to 30% annually, which is equivalent to 2.7% monthly, very far from the 5% to 6% inflation projected for May.

Looking to the future, from Romano Group they believe that still “There are still factors that can keep the dollar calm at current levels” as a possible intensification of the liquidation of the coarse harvest or even the permanence of the stocks, although They warned that the end of the carry trade, added to the stagnation in the upper house of the basic law, could generate greater volatility.

With a similar look, Delphos Investment recalled this Tuesday in a report that “the long nap since the last nominal maximum of the CCL in January made possible a very important carry in different instruments in pesos with little volatility”, but that based on the BCRA rate reduction “it will be necessary to monitor the breadth of this bullish rearrangement”.

For her part, the economist Elena Alonso He also said that the recent blue’s rise is linked to the lowering of the interest rate, “given that given the returns on fixed terms, people feel safer hedging themselves in dollars“. It should be remembered that some fixed-term rates are already below 30%, and savers are moving to hoarding in dollars.

Alonso comments that, in addition, they began to talk more about dollarization, which generates protection, fear and uncertaintyleading people to take refuge in the dollar, which “has always made us feel safe.”

Regarding a possible exchange delay, Alonso indicated that there was very high inflation in dollar terms due to the inflation in pesos that occurred in the first months of the year and in December. “This may generate the perception of a cheap dollar compared to this situation, but I do not see the possibility of the Government making a devaluation increase, especially with inflation on the decline,” he highlighted.

In this context, Alonso considered that the rearrangement of costs and sales prices is being left in the hands of companies so that they seek to be more competitive. He also suggested that the State should intervene by reducing taxes to give them relief, but he does not believe that this will happen through an adjustment in the exchange rate.

In relation to the rate and level of the dollar, Leo Anzalone, director of the Center for Political and Economic Studies (CEPEC), observed that it is, at least, a collateral result that is good for the Government. The problem is not the official dollar, he explains, which he believes will continue with a crawling peg of 2% per month, nor the blue. “Here what you have to observe are the financiers, because they are the least confident.”

“So, every time the rate goes down, the movements occur there, the one to observe is the CCL. Why is it a beneficial collateral result? Because every time there is a cut, the CCL rises a little, which is the that looks at the countryside, since there it liquidates 20%, if the countryside liquidates, the government gets dollars”, noted the economist.