Parallel exchange rates rose sharply this month, contrary to what happened with interest rates that continue to decline.
Dollar blue vs. fixed term: which won the race in May and what can happen in June
After long months where nor interest rates who pay fixed installments Not even the blue dollar could compete with the monthly price increase, in May This logic was broken. Parallel exchange rates rose sharply and The blue dollar is on track to close the largest monthly increase since Javier Milei became President. Given this, more than one will wonder what to expect in June.
It should be noted that the current management of the BCRAheaded by Santiago Bausili, has already accumulated six rate reductions in just over five months. The monetary authority reduced it to 40% annual nominal value in mid-May. Meanwhile, at the beginning of the month, it had taken it to 50% from a previous 60%. And there is still speculation that the Government could continue with the decreases in interest rates.
In this regard, it is important to mention that, at this time, the Capitalizable bills (Lecaps) issued by the Treasury became the new reference instrument for interest rates after the last reduction that the BCRA ordered for repos. The LECAPs they are performing between 3.3% and 4.2% monthly, below inflation levels, but above the monetary policy rate.
For his part, the blue dollar made a strong jump and is heading to close May at the level of $1,230 for saleaccording to a survey of Ambit in the caves of the City. Thus, marks an increase of $190 in the month (+18.3%), the largest for this period in the Milei era. It should be noted that the parallel bill had been lateralized for four months and it was only in this period that it managed to recover part of the lost ground against inflation.
Fixed term vs. dollar: what can we expect for June
“For now I see the dollar behind, with respect to what the past inflation was. In terms of rate, in my opinion, it is not being fully effective in controlling fluctuations in the American currency. There is no interesting prize for the traditional saver to prefer the fixed term over dollarization. I think that going into the second half of the year, if this persists, there may be volatility in stock dollars and blue“he told Ambitthe Economist Joel Lupieri from EPyCA Consultores.
For his part, for the economist Federico Glustein, the relationship between both variables will be interesting over the next month. “In May blue grew by 17%, much higher than the rate that a Lecap (4.2%) or a fixed term (3.3%) can pay“, he recounted and said that “however, The price of the currency will depend on what happens with the base law and the fiscal package.”
In this regard, he said that could hit a new low if this regulation is approved that would imply confidence in the Government’s management or “give the opposite effect if it is not approved, added to some effect of increase due to the collection of bonuses, but less, because the economic situation means that part of it will go to pay obligations,” he concluded. Glustein.
Source: Ambito
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