Analyst Salvador Di Stéfano explained what will be the factors that will mark the dynamics of the dollar in the sixth month of the year. Furthermore, he suggested that it is not the ideal time to hoard foreign currency “under the mattress.”
He “guru of the city” Salvador Di Stéfano maintained through a report that there are not many reasons to expect a strong rise in the dollar during June. The analyst assured that The equilibrium exchange rate today is at $1,223a little below the current price of the blue dollar.
This equilibrium value arises from the relationship between the remunerated liabilities of the Central Bank (BCRA), which have been reduced by almost $1 trillion since the assumption of Javier Milei as president, and the reserves of the monetary authority, which have risen by nearly US$ 8,000 million since December.
For Di Stéfano, that cleanup of the BCRA balance sheetwhich also includes the end of monetary issuance to finance the fiscal deficit (even managing to have a financial fiscal surplus for four consecutive months), is the fundamental pillar to foresee calm in the exchange market in the coming weeks.
The dollar will remain flat according to Di Stéfano
The specialist warned that the “dollar could rise if the Government does not achieve a fiscal surplus in the coming months, finds it impossible to capitalize the Central Bank, or issues money without support to carry out some extraordinary expenditure,” although he clarified that this would go against the principles of Freedom Advances.
“By May the government hopes to achieve a fiscal surplus again, but the effort is increasingly greater, since they have to lower expenses, in the face of income that rises very little due to the economic recession. As long as this golden rule is maintained, the dollar will remain flat“, he estimated.
Finally, Di Stéfano suggested that today it is not advisable to hoard dollars “under the mattress” because interest rates in the US are no longer as low as they were between 2008 and 2021, and taking into account that the fiscal policy of the current Argentine government erases the reasons why the dollar gained purchasing power internally.
How much is the dollar trading at today?
The blue dollar closed at $1,235 this Monday, after jumping $185 (almost 18%) in May as a result of the end of the “carry trade”, doubts about the approval of the Bases Law and the delayed liquidation of the harvest.
Meanwhile, the MEP is close to $1,260 and the CCL exceeds $1,290. Last month, both quotes also exhibited a strong upward rebound, with a variation of 14% and 16%, respectively.
Source: Ambito
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