D-Day for the Bases law: what the market expects from the Senate and how much financial assets can rise or fall

This Wednesday will be a key day for the Government. The Senate will begin to discuss the Bases law and the fiscal package, a thermometer that has the market in suspense. Although it would seem that the ruling party would achieve a quorum, There are doubts about whether it will achieve the 37 votes necessary to impose its approval.

It should be noted that the debate in the premises of the Bases law and the fiscal package, will begin this Wednesday, June 12, at 10 in the morning. Expected an extensive session and a much tighter result of what happened in Deputies when the second version of the project obtained 142 affirmative votes.

Just as at the beginning of the government of Javier Milei The market celebrated the search for fiscal balance, Today it is focused on the ruling party getting its first laws in the National Congress and experts agree that the result will have a full impact on the price of Argentine assets.

“I think that within the current context of marked expectation, and sensitivitywhat happens in the treatment of the Bases law and the fiscal package will have immediate repercussions on assets and financial dollars”he told Ambit, the Economist Gustavo Ber.

And he explained that this is because “it will quickly generate readings on political and economic scenarios, among which the sustainability of the fiscal balance that has been acting as an anchor stands out.”

Possible scenarios and how the dollar and bonds could react

For Francisco MartinCEO of Take Investments“a priori The market discounts that the Law is approved in general with some changes in particular; taking into account that the most important thing about the law is the fiscal package. Without a doubt this scenario, even if it returns to Deputies, will have a positive effect.”

Opposite case, If approval is not achieved, “the short-term decline could be very strong”, he highlighted. “In The most optimistic scenario is a total approval of the law without modifications, where the increase could be strongamplified by the corrections of recent days,” Martín concluded.

For its part, Javier CasabalFixed Income Strategist at Adcap, detailed what could happen with sovereign bonds in dollars. “Last week our scenario was for bonds to return to March 1 prices and they really approached those levels. But now, the mood of the markets began to improve and it seems that the correction ended when the Global 2035 (GD35) reached $39 on Friday.”.

“Some considered that Those levels were an overreaction and that Milei still has some tools in Congress and is not governing aloneas the prices of March 1 suggested,” the expert concluded.

Meanwhile, the economist Federico Glustein He focused on analyzing what could happen to stock dollars and the blue. For him, “the logical thing would be that Parallel prices will drop if the Law is approved because part of the uncertainty generated in political terms dissipates. and an upward trend could continue if it is not approved or there are modifications, understanding the existing power vacuum that the Government has.”

Bases Law: why it is important for the market that it be approved

To its turn, Rafael Di Giorno of Proficioin a conversation with this medium, clarified why the market looks closely at this key test from the Government: “On the one hand, it is the political issue, the strength that the ruling party can demonstrate and, the other part, has to do with the tax issue because it has a significant impact in terms of revenue“.

For the expert, the non-creation of the Incentive Regime for Large Investments (RIGI) would have an impact in the medium term. Di Giorno, however, said that the weather is “very undefined” and that this was evidenced in the volatility that financial assets had in recent days.