The market outlook for the coming year depends to a large extent on the evolution in the negotiations with the IMF. Walter Morales, president of Wise, told Ámbito that from the consultancy they handle two scenarios, depending on whether or not an agreement is reached with the multilateral credit organization.
If the Government reaches a point in common with the institution led by Kristalina Georgieva, the financial advisor envisions a blue dollar between $ 245 and $ 255 by December 2022, which would imply an annual increase of between 20% and 25%, approximately. “It is not that expectations are going to improve significantly, but they will do so slightly,” he deepened.
In addition, Morales warns that the agreement would lead to an adjustment in the wholesale dollar, which is regulated by the Central Bank (BCRA), which “would allow a compression of the gap with respect to the blue.”
With a similar look, the economist Gustavo Ber maintained in dialogue with this medium that an agreement with the Fund that “Not only postpone the bulky maturities, but also reach consensus on an economic roadmap to correct economic imbalances, it could reduce the exchange rate gap (today close to 100%).”
The analyst also expects changes in the exchange rate regime and an acceleration in the pace of the “crawling-peg”, “since it cannot allow itself to follow the dynamics of draining net reserves.” In the event that there is no agreement with the IMF, an option that today seems the least likely, Morales assures that the “blue has no ceiling.”
Cohen’s Chief of Strategy, Juan José Vásquez, agreed that the performance of the parallel dollar depends on many factors, and in large part on the negotiations with the Fund. “Then there would be a government plan and financing for 2022 to be evaluated. If there are no corrections in the Macro, and taking into account that the expected inflation for next year is 52% according to the REM, it is necessary to think of a blue of $ 300 by the end of 2022 as a probable scenario“, he detailed.
For its part, last week the consulting firm specialized in corporate finance, Focus Finanzas, published on Twitter a poll in which the majority of voters estimate a blue dollar between $ 250 and $ 325 by the end of 2022.
The blue dollar is heading to register in December a rise similar to that of November (around 2%), within the framework of a greater demand for pesos due to seasonal reasons. However, the gap with the official remains high; this week it exceeded 100%. The historical record dates from October 2020 (149.6%), while the 2021 record was verified last October 11 (106.1%).
Source From: Ambito
David William is a talented author who has made a name for himself in the world of writing. He is a professional author who writes on a wide range of topics, from general interest to opinion news. David is currently working as a writer at 24 hours worlds where he brings his unique perspective and in-depth research to his articles, making them both informative and engaging.
