The Forecasts predict a 70% chance of storm conditions. The girl during the next three months in Latin America, said this Thursday the International Center for Research on the El Niño Phenomenon (CIIFEN). But can affect the harvest?
“There is a high probability that a La Niña will develop in the second half of 2024. Therefore, it is recommended to maintain constant monitoring of conditions (…) in the face of potential meteorological events of intense rains and the potential development of drier conditions in much of South America,” said the CIIFEN.
However, since Rosary Bag they point out that The projection of La Niña between September 2024 and March 2025 was tempered (taking into account data from the main reference organizations: NOAA/NCEP/CPC/IRI) compared to what was forecast two months ago, when it was forecast as “very strong” with “a level of cooling rarely seen in the last 25 years”. “There is a clear trend towards decreasing cooling,” highlights the report.
How do the El Niño and La Niña phenomena affect us?
The phenomenon called El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) refers to variations in the temperatures of the Pacific Ocean.which consists of two opposite patterns or episodes, El Niño and La Niña and a neutral phase.
The pattern of The girl it is characterized by unusually cold temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and is related to floods and droughts.
For these reasons it is that the cycle between the meteorological patterns of The boy and The girl – which can lead to forest fires, tropical cyclones and prolonged droughts – is vital for farmers around the world. Bridging the gap, in Latin Americaaffected crops such as wheat, soybeans and corn, harming regional economies that are often very dependent on agriculture.
What is the prognosis?
In the case of temperature forecasts, values are projected “between near normal and below normal west of the Andes mountain range and south of the continent”.
Temperatures would be above normal in much of Central and South America, “especially east of the Andes mountain range in regions of Venezuela, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia and much of Brazil,” the report noted.
There is potential for record planting
Argentina’s 2024/25 wheat harvest would be 21 million tonssaid the Rosario Stock Exchange in a report. “Now the planting scenario is compared to 2021, the year in which Argentina for the first time managed to plant 6.9 million hectares and a production of 23 million tons,” the report states.
A national wheat crop is estimated at 6.92 million hectares (ha), 1.4 million hectares more than a year ago.
Source: Ambito
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