After a calm in the first days of the month due to the greater seasonal demand for pesos, in the second fortnight it showed a jump of almost $ 10 due to the greater liquidity due to the payment of Christmas bonuses and holidays, high inflation and upward expectations around key prices in the economy.
About, Claudio Caprarulo, economist and director of Analytics, in dialogue with Ámbito recalled that the informal dollar “is an informal and small market, where few operations can modify the reference prices.”
“After the elections there was a slight downward trend in the price of Blue, but since the second half of December it has been reversed and has been rising. Today it is already operating at the peak values it reached in November. a context where you cannot buy more than $ 200 per month for savings in the formal market, which surely explains part of the dynamics. And beyond that specific data, the recovery in the level of activity as well “, he expanded on the causes of this jump.
Caprarulo also highlighted that “it is the market where a large part of the informal sector of the economy dollarizes its profits” and in terms of what is projected in the short term, he anticipated that “there is still no reason to project a fall in the gap between Parallel prices of the dollar. Going forward, the closing of the agreement with the IMF and the deepening of the change in the devaluation pattern that began in December may be factors that contribute to its reduction. “
After touching a floor of $ 139 in April, the price of the blue began to show an upward trend, although with oscillations. The largest increases for the year were verified in July (+ $ 12.50 or 7.4%) and June (+ $ 11 or 7%). Likewise, the highest gap in 2021 with respect to the official one was noted on October 11, when it reached 106.1%.
Looking to 2022, other specialists also warn that its performance will depend on several factors, including negotiations with the IMF and the strategy regarding the management of the official exchange rate.
Walter Morales, president of Wise, told this medium that if the Government reaches a point in common with the institution led by Kristalina Georgieva, the blue dollar will peak next year between $ 245 and $ 255. For his part, Juan José Vásquez, Cohen’s Head of Strategy, warned of a price closer to $ 300 if an agreement is not reached, taking into account that the expected annual inflation according to the REM is 52%.
Source From: Ambito
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