“In scenarios of high fiscal uncertainty, with a loss of bond parity, stocks can become a store of value. That happened in 2021, where they were the second best investment after long bonds with CER adjustment”, they commented from Quinquela Fondos.
The year closes with a inflation rate that was higher than initial expectations and that beat the exchange rate by a large margin, generating a delay in the real exchange rate. BCRA interest rates remained stable throughout the year (38% that of the Leliq) and were clearly lower than the inflationary rhythm, that is, the economy returned to work with negative real rates, a situation that is compatible with the current exchange controls scheme, and with a high exchange rate gap.
Under this scenario, and sustained by the great performance of Wll Street and the rise in the CCL dollar, the S&P Merval index accumulated a rise of 65.5% in 2021, that is, it gained more than 14% in dollars (CCL).
“The shares recovered positions. The S&P Merval improved from US $ 361 to US $ 423 in the year, although it is still far from its historical average (US $ 600 at current prices and US $ 800 at constant prices)”, remarked a report from GMA Capital .
Beyond this, 2021 will be remembered as the elusive year for emerging markets, where capital flows were not tempted by asset valuations. “Argentina could not stand out at this inconsequential and investors exposed their disinterest in local assets, something that was reflected in the volume traded. Still, some selective stocks had good returns, while fixed income clearly had a deficit year, “highlighted an Inviu report.
Throughout all of 2021, the US was the main protagonist of the global rebound. The recovery in employment allowed the unemployment rate to end at 4.2% at the end of November, very close to its long-term structural unemployment value. In addition, families that had achieved significant excess savings during the worst of the pandemic, have strengthened their level of consumption and spending in the second half of the year.
This recovery was reflected in the main Wall Street indices, which closed the year with improvements of up to 27% (S & P500), and at all-time highs, with the highest performance differential compared to global equity in the last 20 years, added Inviu, who warned that valuations remain extremely demanding, opening investment opportunities in other markets and maximizing the sense of caution in 2022.
What were the winning Argentine stocks in 2021:
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Sociedad Comercial del Plata: + 167.5%
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Garovaglio y Zorraquin: +152%
Winners in Fixed Income
In terms of returns in the fixed income segment, the year closed with CER-indexed securities at the top of the winners, with increases of up to 132.2% (Quasipar), and almost 70% on average. The Fixed rate bonds (Jackpots), with increases of 68.4% on average.
They reaped double-digit increases, even in dollars (up 12.1%), thanks to a process of revaluation. Fixed income had had a great first half of the year, after the yields of the curves “normalized” once the fears of the rollover of maturities in pesos dissipated, analyzed from GMA Capital.
CER bonds “have adjusted for historical inflation and for the expectation of sustained forward inflation and its longer duration. The investments with the best yield turned out to be the longest CER assets, which gained on average 71%. Meanwhile, the instruments the medium and short tranche also generated high and positive returns in MEP dollar terms, “they stated from Quinquela.
The rest of the assets had great difficulties to overcome the floating line of inflation (around 50%) and the devaluation of the peso (CCL exchange rate). Dollar-linked bonds were among the biggest losers of the year in real terms because the underlying expectation of an official devaluation never materialized: they only rose to 21.4% (TV22).
With the exchange rate used as the main nominal anchor, Assets adjusted for the official dollar (Com A 3,500) lagged especially in the first part of the year. “They only regained attractiveness when the electoral process approached and the demand for coverage increased, compensating via price for the low rate of depreciation of the official dollar, “said Quinquela.
For their part, the securities restructured in 2020 (Bonares and Globales) could not escape the mediocrity with losses of up to 20% (AL30D) in hard currency, and 10% on average. The market shows a feeling of total apathy with the Argentine debt. And the parities of 30 cents and the Country risk of more than 1,700 points (rose 28% or 384 points to 1,703 points in the year) is the clearest example.
Last wheel of the year
On the last day of the year, Argentine stocks and bonds closed higher due to a recomposition of their own portfolios at the end of the year, with investors betting on relevant news for the first quarter of 2022.
The stock market through its S&P Merval index advanced 0.9%, to 84,766.77 points, at the rate of ADRs in New York.
The Government is expected to close an agreement with the IMF before March for an impossible debt that amounts to about $ 45 billion. “Last wheel of the year and (…) the heads of investors are already set in the first months of 2022 and the evolution of the negotiations with the IMF”, They said from Portfolio Personal Inversiones (PPI).
Faced with the inactivity of Friday for New Years Eve, The blue dollar renewed its maximum intraday ceiling of $ 210, although it later deflated to $ 208, while the central bank (BCRA) regulated the wholesale market with its usual interventions: this Thursday it sold about $ 100 million.
In the fixed income segment, sovereign bonds in dollars closed mixed, with raises led by the Global 2038 (+ 1.5%), and drops led by Bonar 2030 (-1.5%). Meanwhile, country risk closed slightly higher (+ 0.1%).
Source From: Ambito
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