Looking ahead to the start of the second half of the year, the drivers to keep in mind When investing in equities seem to multiply. The elections in USA and the September decision that will be made by the Federal Reserve on the interest rate will set the pace on the international level, and therefore for the cedearsMeanwhile, the local area looks risky and volatilebut there are some sectors that validate the risk of exposing themselves to Argentina through Actions.
Cedears: The recommended portfolio
On the other hand, with an eye on the international market, in the evaluation corresponding to the last week of June, the ETF of the S&P 500 closed at $544.22 thus registering a drop of -0.5% in the last seven days. The sectors “Utilities” (-1.8%) and Materials (-1.5%) were the most offered, while the most demanded were Energy (+1.6%) and Communication (+0.9%).
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq ETF closed at $480.18, down -0.22%, after reaching highs of US$485.21. The cedears most purchased were Hut 8 Mining Corp (HUT, +35.61%) and Globant (GLOB, +22.20%).
On the side of the most offered roles, there were Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA,-21.60%) and Nike (NKE,-16.46%), which in recent days sank 20% and in a single day lost more than US$23 billion marketcap value.
In this context, Mateo ReschiniHead of Research at Inviushare with Ambit that in its recommended portfolio for July there is Cedears, both indices and individual stocks. The strategist comments that this is a fairly balanced portfolio, which does not bet on a particular sector.We believe it is good to maintain a certain prudence with foreign markets.”, he notes.
In this way, the offshore portfolio recommended by Inviu for July is composed of:
- BRK. B: Berkshire Hathaway twenty%.
- SPY: SPDR S&P 500 ETF- twenty%.
- JNJ: Johnson & Johnson-10%.
- WMT: Walmart Inc-10%.
- XLE: Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (ETF) 10%.
- EWZ: iShares MSCI Brazil ETF -10%.
- XLF: Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF-10%.
- Google (GOOGL): Alphabet Inc- 10%.
Reschini’s view is shared by Juan Ignacio Bialetpersonal finance manager of SBS Groupwho told this newspaper that, internationally, the presidential debate in the United States clearly left the Republican candidate in a better position, Donald Trump.
“This is positive for the market in general and, above all, for American companies, due to its protectionist tone,” since investors have already witnessed what Trump is like in his management.If confirmed, we like the consumer goods sectors, such as Walmart, and the technology sector, Google.”says.
Local actions: drivers to consider
In his first seven months of management, Javier Milei’s Government showed the market that the fiscal deficit could be eliminated and not just the primary one, almost that “From overnight“And while there are more than reasonable doubts about the sustainability of the fiscal result, the Executive’s commitment to that result is very clear.
However, as highlighted in Tuesday’s report, 1816“Even assuming that the fiscal issue is the mother of all the problems of the Argentine macro, it is evident that it is not the only problem that the economy faces.“. In general, there is consensus in the market that Mauricio Macri’s economic management failed because, having opted for a monetary/exchange rate shock, he was gradualist in fiscal matters.
Milei, showing a totally opposite recipe (fiscal shock, gradualism in monetary/exchange), had the approval of the market in its first semester, “but today the message that investors seem to give is that”It is not enough to resolve only the restrictions (like Macri) or resolve only the fiscal issue (like Milei), for the economy to work, both things must be resolved, yes or yes, and quickly.“, analyzes the consultant.
In this way, the market will closely follow the dynamics of reserve accumulation by the Central Bank, Since in June it stopped buying dollars despite being a month where seasonally dollars should have come in from the thick harvest and it did not happen. It will also be necessary to closely monitor how the interest rate develops via the new monetary regulation letters controlled by the Central Bank, but issued by the Treasury to contain the recent rise in the exchange rate.
For this reason, the strategy recommended by experts in relation to Argentine equity is to be selective in the papers to invest inas this can make a difference, as well as trying to achieve in the portfolio a coverage of all sectors.
Onshore portfolios
In this context, for Reschini there is “Some interesting plays in the Oil & Gas sector“, as Pampa and YPFwhich are the ones “we like the most at the moment.” The national oil company and Vista are positioned as the main players in the energy sector, in which companies such as Southern and Central Port Gas Transporter. All of them offer interesting prospects for investors looking for diversify your portfolio.
Inviu onshore portfolio.jpeg
“In particular, we see that some of the companies we mentioned are lagging behind the rest of their peers, even within the local market, as is the case of YPF”, adds Inviu in one of its latest reports.
Along the same lines, Bialiet says that within the leading panel of the Argentine Stock Exchanges and Markets (BYMA) “We prefer the Oil & Gas sector, the chosen ones are Vista Energy, YPF and Pampa Energía”.
Source: Ambito
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